2022 School Soccer Win Complete Projections, Odds & Picks: ACC

D.J. Uiagalelei

Within the article under, faculty soccer skilled Thor Nystrom tasks the unfold for each sport utilizing his ATL system (Adjusted Thor Unfold). These spreads are from the angle of the group in query – i.e., Military is a +2.5 underdog at Coastal Carolina and a -5 favourite internet hosting UTSA.

Listed below are his whole win projections, odds, and picks for the ACC.

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Clemson Tigers
Thor’s Preseason Energy Rating: 4 out of 131




Away
Residence
Day
Unfold
Win odds


Georgia Tech
Clemson
Mon, Sep 5
-24.5
1


Furman
Clemson
Sat, Sep 10
-51
1


Louisiana Tech
Clemson
Sat, Sep 17
-35
1


Clemson
Wake Forest
Sat, Sep 24
-15
0.956


North Carolina St.
Clemson
Sat, Oct 1
-10.5
0.86


Clemson
Boston School
Sat, Oct 8
-19.5
1


Clemson
Florida St.
Sat, Oct 15
-8
0.791


Syracuse
Clemson
Sat, Oct 22
-21
1


Clemson
Notre Dame
Sat, Nov 5
-2
0.535


Louisville
Clemson
Sat, Nov 12
-12.5
0.887


Miami (FL)
Clemson
Sat, Nov 19
-9
0.807


South Carolina
Clemson
Sat, Nov 26
-20.5
1

Clemson reached 10 wins for the Eleventh-consecutive season in 2021 regardless of rating No. 112 EPA/go and No. 117 passing explosion. The Tigers had each alternative to handle their quarterback concern in an offseason that featured unprecedented switch motion, notably on the signal-calling place. As an alternative, HC Dabo Swinney determined to disregard the portal – a longtime philosophy he has quadrupled down on – and roll it again with QB D.J. Uiagalelei, whose struggles derailed the offense final 12 months.

Swinney has one bullet – and one bullet solely – if Uiagalelei stinks once more: five-star, top-10 general recruit QB Cade Klubnik. The scenario is eerily much like Trevor Lawrence’s true freshman season when Lawrence signed with a nationwide contender with an established-but-mediocre veteran beginning QB in Kelly Bryant. Lawrence wrestled the job away from Bryant by late September. Clemson’s QB scenario bears shut watching once more early this fall. Whoever is behind heart is praying for higher OL play this fall.

Elsewhere, Clemson is breaking in new coordinators after former OC Tony Eliot and DC Brent Venables left to take HC jobs this offseason. Swinney changed each with inner choices. Clemson had a top-three protection final 12 months regardless of getting disregarded to dry by the offense and coping with accidents. Clemson’s entrance seven is well the nation’s finest. This line of defense will remind you of your older brother’s title-winning Tigers’ defensive traces. Will this group likewise flip to a freshman QB to spark the offense for a playoff run?


Thor’s projected win whole: 10.8
Las Vegas win whole: 10.5
Thor’s wager: Go

I completely love the protection – it’s undoubtedly championship caliber. However the quarterback place is an actual drawback. Uiagalelei has now posted a 14/10 TD/INT ratio over 491 profession passing makes an attempt. Kelly Bryant was yanked after a 16/10 TD/INT ratio over 470 makes an attempt. Until Uiagalelei is magically a distinct participant, or Klubnik is a younger Lawrence, this group is simply as tragically flawed as final 12 months’s group. That’s nonetheless in all probability adequate to go 10-2, however that’d go below. I’ve to go.

Miami Hurricanes
Thor’s Preseason Energy Rating: 9 out of 131




Away
Residence
Day
Unfold
Win odds


Bethune-Cookman
Miami (FL)
Sat, Sep 3
-45
1


Southern Miss
Miami (FL)
Sat, Sep 10
-27
1


Miami (FL)
Texas A&M
Sat, Sep 17
3.5
0.357


Center Tennessee
Miami (FL)
Sat, Sep 24
-26
1


North Carolina
Miami (FL)
Sat, Oct 8
-9
0.807


Miami (FL)
Virginia Tech
Sat, Oct 15
-9.5
0.811


Duke
Miami (FL)
Sat, Oct 22
-30.5
1


Miami (FL)
Virginia
Sat, Oct 29
-10.5
0.86


Florida St.
Miami (FL)
Sat, Nov 5
-6.5
0.724


Miami (FL)
Georgia Tech
Sat, Nov 12
-16
0.981


Miami (FL)
Clemson
Sat, Nov 19
9
0.193


Pittsburgh
Miami (FL)
Sat, Nov 26
-5
0.681

When QB1 D’Eriq King bought harm, and QB2 Tyler Van Dyke took over final 12 months, I instantly assumed the HC Manny Diaz period was over. And I used to be proper about that – however very a lot not in the best way I anticipated to be. Removed from the offense devolving right into a joke, Van Dyke was a ready-made star who gave it a jolt. Van Dyke’s misplaced his first two begins to FBS groups by a mixed 5 factors. Then he led the Hurricanes to five-of-six wins to shut the season. Miami fired Diaz anyway, paving the best way for Mario Cristobal’s hiring. Cristobal added former Michigan OC Josh Gattis to name performs.

Gattis ought to make good use of Van Dyke’s NFL arm. Final 12 months, Van Dyke completed No. 2 in PFF big-time throw price. And although that is Cristobal’s first Miami group, it is going to very a lot be consistent with the trench-play ethos we noticed at Oregon. The Canes return three starters on the offensive line and have one of many nation’s finest units of offensive tackles. The line of defense isn’t as established, however it was the world Cristobal hit hardest within the switch portal, signing a number of high-ceiling candidates for quick taking part in time.

Simply as Miami’s line of defense expects to take a soar ahead from its common play final 12 months, enchancment can also be anticipated out of the secondary. Miami added South Seashore native CB Tyrique Stevenson within the portal from Georgia. Stevenson, who spent the final two years within the slot, wished to play his final 12 months at house on the skin. In the meantime, that is in all probability the 12 months we’re getting the star-leap out of 2021 five-star S James Williams.


Thor’s projected win whole: 9.4
Las Vegas win whole: 8.5
Thor’s wager: OVER

Cristobal is about as much as win rapidly. He’s bought the personnel for it, together with a round-one QB prospect, good line play and good group pace. The schedule can also be manageable. Three cupcakes arrive within the OOC, and my numbers favor Miami by a minimum of 5 factors in seven totally different convention video games.

North Carolina State Wolfpack
Thor’s Preseason Energy Rating: 12 out of 131




Away
Residence
Day
Unfold
Win odds


North Carolina St.
East Carolina
Sat, Sep 3
-13.5
0.9


Charleston Southern
North Carolina St.
Sat, Sep 10
-44
1


Texas Tech
North Carolina St.
Sat, Sep 17
-14.5
0.949


Connecticut
North Carolina St.
Sat, Sep 24
-38
1


North Carolina St.
Clemson
Sat, Oct 1
10.5
0.14


Florida St.
North Carolina St.
Sat, Oct 8
-6
0.707


North Carolina St.
Syracuse
Sat, Oct 15
-8
0.791


Virginia Tech
North Carolina St.
Thur, Oct 27
-13.5
0.9


Wake Forest
North Carolina St.
Sat, Nov 5
-13
0.893


Boston School
North Carolina St.
Sat, Nov 12
-16.5
0.998


North Carolina St.
Louisville
Sat, Nov 19
-1
0.513


North Carolina St.
North Carolina
Fri, Nov 25
-2.5
0.545

This summer time’s sleeper du jour. Coming off a 9-3 season, NC State ranks No. 8 nationally in returning manufacturing. The Wolfpack return NFL prospect QB Devin Leary amongst seven starters on offense, in addition to 10 starters on protection. Maybe due to all of the returning expertise, the Pack principally steered away from the switch portal. The most important loss on offense was OT Ikem Ekwonu, and he’s clearly an enormous one.

However the different 4 starters on the offensive line are again (95 profession begins), in order that unit must be stabilized. Leary takes care of the ball as a lot as any QB within the nation whereas nonetheless persistently threatening the protection deep. DC Tony Gibson’s 3-3-5 protection does a fantastic job of stifling operating video games, producing stress and complicated quarterbacks. With a lot expertise again, it might match final 12 months’s top-15 SP+ end.


Thor’s projected win whole: 9.3
Las Vegas win whole: 8.5
Thor’s wager: OVER

What’s to not like? NC State proved the idea final 12 months, and many of the band is again collectively. The schedule is manageable. My numbers give NC State roughly an 85% likelihood of rising undefeated from its 4 OOC video games. The toughie of in-conference play is the street sport at Clemson, however that one isn’t unwinnable. And my numbers mission NC State as favorites within the different seven ACC video games.

Pittsburgh Panthers
Thor’s Preseason Energy Rating: 19 out of 131




Away
Residence
Day
Unfold
Win odds


West Virginia
Pittsburgh
Thur, Sep 1
-15
0.956


Tennessee
Pittsburgh
Sat, Sep 10
-1
0.513


Pittsburgh
Western Michigan
Sat, Sep 17
-21.5
1


Rhode Island
Pittsburgh
Sat, Sep 24
-41
1


Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh
Sat, Oct 1
-18
1


Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh
Sat, Oct 8
-11
0.871


Pittsburgh
Louisville
Sat, Oct 22
1
0.488


Pittsburgh
North Carolina
Sat, Oct 29
-1
0.513


Syracuse
Pittsburgh
Sat, Nov 5
-11
0.871


Pittsburgh
Virginia
Sat, Nov 12
-7.5
0.781


Duke
Pittsburgh
Sat, Nov 19
-27.5
1


Pittsburgh
Miami (FL)
Sat, Nov 26
5
0.319

Final 12 months, Pitt went 11-3 and received the ACC title with a Heisman finalist QB and a Biletnikoff-winning WR. However after shedding QB Kenny Pickett (and CB Damarri Mathis) to the NFL Draft, WR Jordan Addison to the switch portal and a number of essential assistants to different staffs, Pitt is prone to take a normalizing step backward in 2022. HC Pat Narduzzi is making an attempt to exchange Pickett and Addison with portal provides QB Kedon Slovis (former USC starter) and WR Konata Mumpfield (96th percentile separation price in opposition to single protection, per PFF).

The Panthers’ passing assault is not going to solely have lesser personnel, however it could battle acclimating to life with out OC Mark Whipple and WR Brennan Marion. Pitt has a deep steady of backs and expects to run extra this 12 months to offset losses within the passing sport. Final 12 months’s protection ranked No. 2 in sacks per sport and No. 5 in EPA/run and returned seven starters, six of whom have been all-conference. Final 12 months’s unit completed No. 29 SP+. This 12 months’s appears like top-25 high quality.


Thor’s projected win whole: 9.3
Las Vegas win whole: 8.5
Thor’s wager: Go

Pitt’s magical 2021 season crossed a expertise zenith with an ACC low-point. Pitt’s schedule ranked No. 60 SP+. Although the ACC must be higher this 12 months, Pitt geese Clemson this time round. Pitt doesn’t have that trump-card passing offense anymore, however it shouldn’t fall off as a lot as anticipated with a greater speeding assault and protection. However despite the fact that my numbers make a case for the over, I’ll go. Pitt can’t win in the best way it received final 12 months, so this can be a completely totally different squad with much less general expertise taking part in in a convention with a ton of parity. I’m unable to tug the set off.

Louisville Cardinals
Thor’s Preseason Energy Rating: 24 out of 131




Away
Residence
Day
Unfold
Win odds


Louisville
Syracuse
Sat, Sep 3
-5.5
0.69


Louisville
UCF
Fri, Sep 9
-1
0.513


Florida St.
Louisville
Fri, Sep 16
-2
0.535


South Florida
Louisville
Sat, Sep 24
-21
1


Louisville
Boston School
Sat, Oct 1
-8.5
0.802


Louisville
Virginia
Sat, Oct 8
-6.5
0.724


Pittsburgh
Louisville
Sat, Oct 22
0
0.5


Wake Forest
Louisville
Sat, Oct 29
-9.5
0.811


James Madison
Louisville
Sat, Nov 5
-23
1


Louisville
Clemson
Sat, Nov 12
13
0.107


North Carolina St.
Louisville
Sat, Nov 19
1
0.488


Louisville
Kentucky
Sat, Nov 26
1.5
0.475

Louisville completed 6-7 final 12 months with a top-25 SP+ offense however the No. 64 SP+ protection and No. 79 SP+ particular groups. The Cardinals have now had shedding seasons in three of the final 4 years. A number of elements recommend they’ll get again to their successful methods this 12 months. Firstly, Louisville was higher than its file final 12 months, ending with 7.2 second-order wins (+1.2). And the Cardinals have a ton of expertise again, with 14 starters returning, seven on every of facet of the ball. Louisville augmented that core by completely hammering the portal over the offseason.

The offense will go so far as QB Malik Cunningham can take them. Cunningham’s OL returns 4 starters and is likely one of the convention’s finest. The RB and WR rooms are each deep, however it might be good if a star might clearly step ahead in every. Scott Satterfield’s most aggressive portal work got here within the secondary, the place he signed six totally different gamers with FBS expertise. However Satterfield additionally received highly-competitive portal battles for DL Jermayne Lole and LBs Momo Sanogo and Nicario Harper within the entrance seven.


Thor’s projected win whole: 7.6
Las Vegas win whole: 6.5
Thor’s wager: OVER

Below a brand new AD and faculty president, Satterfield is clearly feeling the warmth. That grew to become crystal clear with the maniacal approach Satterfield attacked the portal. He signed the fifth-most profession FBS snaps performed amongst P5 groups. Satterfield will return to steady floor with a robust season, however issues might unravel rapidly in the event that they begin to go the opposite approach. Luckily for Satterfield, my numbers mission Louisville as favorites within the first 9 video games. And although the Playing cards are projected ‘canines within the final three, two of these are basically choose ‘ems. Vegas doesn’t appear to account for the way a lot expertise Louisville picked up within the portal.

Florida State Seminoles
Thor’s Preseason Energy Rating: 28 out of 131




Away
Residence
Day
Unfold
Win odds


Duquesne
Florida St.
Sat, Aug 27
-40.5
1


Florida St.
LSU
Solar, Sep 4
2
0.465


Florida St.
Louisville
Fri, Sep 16
2
0.465


Boston School
Florida St.
Sat, Sep 24
-13
0.893


Wake Forest
Florida St.
Sat, Oct 1
-10
0.836


Florida St.
North Carolina St.
Sat, Oct 8
6
0.294


Clemson
Florida St.
Sat, Oct 15
8
0.209


Georgia Tech
Florida St.
Sat, Oct 29
-17
1


Florida St.
Miami (FL)
Sat, Nov 5
6.5
0.277


Florida St.
Syracuse
Sat, Nov 12
-7.5
0.781


Louisiana
Florida St.
Sat, Nov 19
-16
0.981


Florida
Florida St.
Fri, Nov 25
0
0.5

FSU hadn’t had a shedding season in my lifetime till 2018. That’s additionally now the final 12 months the Seminoles had a successful season. And whereas I felt FSU might have reinvigorated this system over the winter by hiring favourite son Deion Sanders, I perceive why the Seminoles gave HC Mike Norvell yet another shot. Norvell going the best way of Willie Taggart early final season, with a 0-4 begin that included a house upset loss to an FCS group. However because the obituaries began to return in, the offense rose from the useless throughout a torrid 5-3. QB Jordan Travis, beforehand a run-only “dual-threat” behind a foul offensive line, posted an 11/2 TD/INT ratio throughout these final eight video games.

Bear in mind Norvell’s devastating offenses at Memphis? With the passing risk, it’s near turning into a actuality at FSU: The speeding assault is already on-schedule, as evidenced by FSU rating No. 4 in explosive runs and No. 6 in crimson zone TD price final 12 months. There are additionally indicators that the protection, which returns eight starters because the offense does, is equally prepared for a leap. After coughing up 36.0 PPG in 2020, and 31.75 PPG throughout the 0-4 begin final 12 months, FSU held the ultimate eight opponents to 30 factors or much less. Norvell additionally added top-10 general switch EDGE Jared Verse (21.5 TFL and 14.5 sacks in 15 video games for Albany) to that group.


Thor’s projected win whole: 7.7
Las Vegas win whole: 6.5
Thor’s wager: OVER

Final 12 months’s group was dangerous general, however you may see indicators of enchancment: The robust end, the consistently-explosive speeding assault, Travis’ enchancment as a passer, the protection’s end and general energy in opposition to the run (No. 16 EPA/run). This schedule presents the likelihood that FSU might end wherever from 4-8 to 12-0. I believe 8-4 is the almost definitely final result.

North Carolina Tar Heels
Thor’s Preseason Energy Rating: 35 out of 131




Away
Residence
Day
Unfold
Win odds


Florida A&M
North Carolina
Sat, Aug 27
-38
1


North Carolina
Appalachian St.
Sat, Sep 3
-5
0.681


North Carolina
Georgia St.
Sat, Sep 10
-11
0.871


Notre Dame
North Carolina
Sat, Sep 24
5
0.319


Virginia Tech
North Carolina
Sat, Oct 1
-8.5
0.802


North Carolina
Miami (FL)
Sat, Oct 8
9
0.193


North Carolina
Duke
Sat, Oct 15
18.5
0


Pittsburgh
North Carolina
Sat, Oct 29
1
0.488


North Carolina
Virginia
Sat, Nov 5
-4
0.658


North Carolina
Wake Forest
Sat, Nov 12
-5
0.681


Georgia Tech
North Carolina
Sat, Nov 19
-15
0.956


North Carolina St.
North Carolina
Fri, Nov 25
5.5
0.311

The Tar Heels managed to rank No. 84 EPA/run and No. 104 EPA/go final season with a gaggle that simply misplaced QB Sam Howell, RB Ty Chandler, and two beginning OL to the NFL Draft (and a 3rd OL starter who signed as a UDFA). In and of itself, that makes projecting this coming 12 months’s offense (and general group) tough. Final 12 months’s group didn’t conform to logic, and solely 5 starters returned. So what do we actually know? We don’t know the identification of the beginning QB, although UNC has two former hyped recruits jockeying for the job. We all know that WR Josh Downs is likely one of the finest in America (No. 19 in PFF grade; 97th percentile separation price).

UNC’s protection was horrible in each conceivable metric final 12 months. So Brown in essence demoted his co-DCs and introduced Gene Chizik and his 4-2-5 again. Chizik informed the media this 12 months’s protection will concentrate on minding gaps and successful upfront extra whereas sending much less unique blitzes. There’s an actual shot this results in monumental enchancment. Although UNC stunk on D final 12 months, it had a stockpile of highly-recruited D-linemen and a gaggle of highly-touted defensive backs. The DL didn’t appear to develop within the previous system, and final 12 months’s secondary was executed in by a mixture of accidents, penalties, miscues, and being stranded on islands by the teaching workers.


Thor’s projected win whole: 7.0
Las Vegas win whole: 7.5
Thor’s wager: UNDER

UNC scheduled a troublesome four-game OOC slate. Odds are higher that the Heels will emerge from that 2-2 or 3-1 than 4-0. The Tar Heels even have a tougher-than-average ACC draw, pulling NC State and Wake Forest from the opposite facet whereas touring to Miami. I see a 6-6 or 7-5 season coming.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Thor’s Preseason Energy Rating: 49 out of 131




Away
Residence
Day
Unfold
Win odds


VMI
Wake Forest
Thur, Sep 1
-34
1


Wake Forest
Vanderbilt
Sat, Sep 10
-15
0.956


Liberty
Wake Forest
Sat, Sep 17
-9
0.807


Clemson
Wake Forest
Sat, Sep 24
15
0.044


Wake Forest
Florida St.
Sat, Oct 1
10
0.164


Military
Wake Forest
Sat, Oct 8
-8.5
0.802


Boston School
Wake Forest
Sat, Oct 22
-6
0.707


Wake Forest
Louisville
Sat, Oct 29
9.5
0.189


Wake Forest
North Carolina St.
Sat, Nov 5
13
0.107


North Carolina
Wake Forest
Sat, Nov 12
2
0.465


Syracuse
Wake Forest
Sat, Nov 19
-3
0.594


Wake Forest
Duke
Sat, Nov 26
-13.5
0.9

Every thing was arrange for one more run. A number of All-American candidates and 11 starters returned from final season’s 11-win breakthrough. They’d be joined by standout WR Donavon Greene and LT Je’Vionte’ Nash, returning after lacking final season with harm and FCS second-team All-American DT Kobie Turner through the portal. An offense that ranked No. 4 with 41 PPG final season could be terrific once more. The protection that ranked No. 88 final and couldn’t cease the run could be improved. If Pitt took a step again as anticipated and Clemson’s quarterback scenario submarined its offense once more, Wake had positioned itself to doubtlessly steal the convention.

Then got here the information, on Aug. 10, that 4,228-yard QB Sam Hartman would miss the season with a non-football harm. It is a cataclysmic loss. Hartman took 781 of Wake Forest’s 829 passing makes an attempt the final two seasons, being the trigger-man for Wake’s distinctive slow-mesh RPO offense. Hartman stated he’s unlikely to return subsequent 12 months – you’ve in all probability already seen the final of him at Wake. Mitch Griffis is taking on. We don’t know a lot about him. But, the OL returns 4 starters plus Nash. The WR corps, headlined by AT Perry, can also be one of many nation’s finest. Wake’s protection, rotten in opposition to the run, had a couple of issues going for it final 12 months: top-five in turnovers generated, top-20 in TFL, and top-45 in EPA/go. The go rush is powerful, and the corners have protection chops. If Turner may help flip across the run protection, this unit might take an enormous step ahead.


Thor’s projected win whole: 6.7
Las Vegas win whole: N/A
Thor’s wager: N/A

Earlier than the Hartman announcement, Wake Forest’s win whole quantity was 8.5 and my projected win whole was 8.4. After changes to my numbers, the Deacs’ projected win whole falls to six.7. Wake’s win whole has been pulled off the board at sportsbooks in (ahem) wake of the information.

Syracuse Orange
Thor’s Preseason Energy Rating: 50 out of 131




Away
Residence
Day
Unfold
Win odds


Louisville
Syracuse
Sat, Sep 3
5.5
0.311


Syracuse
Connecticut
Sat, Sep 10
-23.5
1


Purdue
Syracuse
Sat, Sep 17
2
0.465


Virginia
Syracuse
Fri, Sep 23
-3.5
0.643


Wagner
Syracuse
Sat, Oct 1
-33
1


North Carolina St.
Syracuse
Sat, Oct 15
8
0.209


Syracuse
Clemson
Sat, Oct 22
21
0


Notre Dame
Syracuse
Sat, Oct 29
10.5
0.14


Syracuse
Pittsburgh
Sat, Nov 5
11
0.129


Florida St.
Syracuse
Sat, Nov 12
5
0.319


Syracuse
Wake Forest
Sat, Nov 19
3
0.406


Boston School
Syracuse
Sat, Nov 26
-5.5
0.69

Are you able to consider that Dino Babers is already coming into 12 months No. 7 at Syracuse? It’s been an odd run. Babers went 10-3 with a bowl win in 2018, and the Orange have been preseason top-25 the following summer time. However Babers has gone 19-40 in his six different seasons on the college. He probably wants a bowl berth to save lots of himself this season. This one might really go both approach.

On the one hand, Syracuse has 17 returning starters and is likely one of the most skilled groups within the P5. On the opposite, the Orange did nearly nothing within the switch portal exterior of shedding deep-ball maven WR Taj Harris.

Syracuse ranked top-25 EPA/run final 12 months and has all of the items again to match or enhance that end. However whereas Babers’ hiring of quick-hit guru OC Robert Anae was an impressed nod to assist the No. 106 EPA/go assault, QB Garrett Shrader, an enormous dual-threat with a robust arm and scattershot accuracy, seems to be a poor match for it. The protection returns all eight projected starters within the LB corps and secondary. Syracuse has probably the greatest back-halves within the convention. However the three-man entrance misplaced all three starters, and the three gamers projected to exchange them common a paltry 250 kilos (30 kilos beneath a typical FBS 3-4 entrance)


Thor’s projected win whole: 5.3
Las Vegas win whole: 5
Thor’s wager: Go

Syracuse is the fascinating proposition of a coach on the recent seat with a high-variance roster getting a high-variance schedule. Syracuse will likely be heavily-favored in two OOC video games. The opposite 10 video games on the schedule all have projected spreads of 11 factors or much less both approach, with six that includes projected spreads below a landing. It’s a go for me.

Virginia Tech Hokies
Thor’s Preseason Energy Rating: 51 out of 131




Away
Residence
Day
Unfold
Win odds


Virginia Tech
Previous Dominion
Fri, Sep 2
-11.5
0.882


Boston School
Virginia Tech
Sat, Sep 10
-5.5
0.69


Wofford
Virginia Tech
Sat, Sep 17
-33
1


West Virginia
Virginia Tech
Thur, Sep 22
-6.5
0.724


Virginia Tech
North Carolina
Sat, Oct 1
-8.5
0.802


Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh
Sat, Oct 8
11
0.129


Miami (FL)
Virginia Tech
Sat, Oct 15
9.5
0.189


Virginia Tech
North Carolina St.
Thur, Oct 27
13.5
0.1


Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
Sat, Nov 5
-9.5
0.811


Virginia Tech
Duke
Sat, Nov 12
13
0.107


Virginia Tech
Liberty
Sat, Nov 19
-2.5
0.545


Virginia
Virginia Tech
Sat, Nov 26
-3.5
0.643

The Hokies have been prepared for a reset after an up-and-down six-year marriage with Justin Fuente. They’re going to get one with new HC Brent Pry and a sequence of portal imports, together with QB Grant Wells. New OC Tyler Bowen needs to determine the run and hit play-action pictures excessive. Wells has the arm for that, and he usually makes good selections with the ball. Nonetheless, we’ll should see if Bowen can clear up Wells’ longtime bugaboo of scattershot accuracy.

The Hokies like their offensive line, however the RB and WR rooms look barren after Fuente’s recruiting dried up on the finish. The brand new DC is Chris Marve, putting in a conventional 4-3 base. He has seven returning starters going for him. However there’s loads of work to do: VT completed No. 110 EPA/run and No. 80 EPA/go final 12 months. The surface corners are strong, however the Hokies have a feeble go rush, get pushed backward within the run sport and have below-average safeties and slot defenders.


Thor’s projected win whole: 6.6
Las Vegas win whole: 6.5
Thor’s wager: Go

That is an objectively truthful quantity. It’s truthful to have questions on Pry’s first Hokies group, however in opposition to this schedule, six or seven wins must be the expectation. Vegas’ quantity is true consistent with mine.

Virginia Cavaliers
Thor’s Preseason Energy Rating: 54 out of 131




Away
Residence
Day
Unfold
Win odds


Richmond
Virginia
Sat, Sep 3
-32
1


Virginia
Illinois
Sat, Sep 10
-4
0.658


Previous Dominion
Virginia
Sat, Sep 17
-15
0.956


Virginia
Syracuse
Fri, Sep 23
3.5
0.357


Virginia
Duke
Sat, Oct 1
-12.5
0.887


Louisville
Virginia
Sat, Oct 8
6
0.294


Virginia
Georgia Tech
Thur, Oct 20
-3.5
0.643


Miami (FL)
Virginia
Sat, Oct 29
10
0.164


North Carolina
Virginia
Sat, Nov 5
3.5
0.357


Pittsburgh
Virginia
Sat, Nov 12
7.5
0.219


Coastal Carolina
Virginia
Sat, Nov 19
-6.5
0.724


Virginia
Virginia Tech
Sat, Nov 26
3
0.406

Bronco Mendenhall surprisingly stepped down after six seasons, leaving Virginia to seven-year Clemson OC Tony Elliott. Elliott’s assaults hummed when he had robust quarterback play. He ought to have that right here with QB Brennan Armstrong, who threw for 4,449 yards and a 31/10 TD/INT price final season. Not solely that, however Virginia returns all three beginning WR (whereas getting potential star WR Laval Davis again from harm). That’s the great things. Nevertheless, there are questions nearly all over the place else. UVA ranks No. 123 in returning expertise, with solely 10 returning starters.

The offense returns 4 starters, and we’ve already referred to them. All the beginning offensive line is gone, three of them to the portal. Will the brand new group of unknowns be capable to defend Armstrong and supply a push within the operating sport? The protection was horrific final season, ending sub-105 in each EPA/run and EPA/go whereas rating No. 126 in havoc price. Former Air Power DC John Rudzinski was an impressed rent. He’s a artistic coach who makes use of combo fronts and likes to maintain 5 DBs on the sphere. Does he have sufficient elements to discipline even a reliable unit in 2022?


Thor’s projected win whole: 6.7
Las Vegas win whole: 7
Thor’s wager: Go

Passing the ball successfully is probably the most vital factor a soccer group can do to extend its odds of successful – and Virginia’s QB and WR rooms are among the many finest within the nation. However I’m spooked by a brand new workers taking on a group with a barren offensive line and little expertise on protection. If the OL is a minimum of competent, UVA will likely be in all types of enjoyable shoot-outs this fall. If it’s not, 12 months No. 1 might be a nightmare for Elliott. Do not forget that Armstrong takes a number of hits (fearless runner) and has a historical past of accidents. If he misses any time, UVA sinks.

Boston School Eagles
Thor’s Preseason Energy Rating: 61 out of 131




Away
Residence
Day
Unfold
Win odds


Rutgers
Boston School
Sat, Sep 3
-5.5
0.69


Boston School
Virginia Tech
Sat, Sep 10
5.5
0.311


Maine
Boston School
Sat, Sep 17
-29.5
1


Boston School
Florida St.
Sat, Sep 24
13
0.107


Louisville
Boston School
Sat, Oct 1
8.5
0.198


Clemson
Boston School
Sat, Oct 8
18.5
0


Boston School
Wake Forest
Sat, Oct 22
6
0.294


Boston School
Connecticut
Sat, Oct 29
20.5
0


Duke
Boston School
Fri, Nov 4
-16
0.981


Boston School
North Carolina St.
Sat, Nov 12
16.5
0.002


Boston School
Notre Dame
Sat, Nov 19
19
0


Syracuse
Boston School
Sat, Nov 26
0
0.5

Excessive expectations have been torpedoed final September when a hand harm knocked QB Phil Jurkovec out for many of the season. Over the previous two years, BC is 10-6 when Jurkovec begins and 2-5 when he doesn’t. Jurkovec is again wholesome, and he’s joined by star WR Zay Flowers, whereas the protection brings again eight starters. The large query on offense is a line that should exchange all 5 starters (4 left, and the fifth tore his ACL).

The run sport completed No. 85 EPA/run final 12 months and doubtless received’t be higher behind the inexperienced line. BC must hope that line can maintain up in entrance of Jurkovec. BC’s protection has a fantastic secondary (No. 7 PFF protection grade final 12 months) and a barely above-average run protection (No. 52 EPA/run). However it’s bereft of playmakers up entrance (No. 96 stress price, No. 101 havoc price). With many of the identical solid of characters again, anticipate it to be a barely higher model of final 12 months’s incarnation.


Thor’s projected win whole: 4.1
Las Vegas win whole: 6.5
Thor’s wager: UNDER

There are two clear wins on this schedule, house video games in opposition to an FCS group and Duke. Exterior of that, my numbers favor the Eagles in just one different sport – and that’s by lower than a TD. What ought to concern these bullish on BC is my numbers mission the Eagles as 13-point or extra ‘canines in 5 video games (16 or extra in 4). If the Eagles merely lose these 5 video games, they’d should go 7-0 within the others to go over. I really like the below.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Thor’s Preseason Energy Rating: 80 out of 131




Away
Residence
Day
Unfold
Win odds


Clemson
Georgia Tech
Mon, Sep 5
25
0


Western Carolina
Georgia Tech
Sat, Sep 10
-26
1


Ole Miss
Georgia Tech
Sat, Sep 17
14
0.076


Georgia Tech
UCF
Sat, Sep 24
14
0.076


Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh
Sat, Oct 1
18
0


Duke
Georgia Tech
Sat, Oct 8
-12
0.885


Virginia
Georgia Tech
Thur, Oct 20
3.5
0.357


Georgia Tech
Florida St.
Sat, Oct 29
17
0


Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
Sat, Nov 5
9.5
0.189


Miami (FL)
Georgia Tech
Sat, Nov 12
16
0.019


Georgia Tech
North Carolina
Sat, Nov 19
15
0.044


Georgia Tech
Georgia
Sat, Nov 26
32
0

Geoff Collins is on the recent seat after going 9-25 in three years. That seat is about to really feel just like the solar’s core. Georgia Tech solely returns 4 starters on protection and three on protection. RB Jahmyr Gibbs transferred to Alabama, and final 12 months’s speeding assault was solely middle-of-the-pack even with him, QB Jeff Sims has monumental accuracy issues. The passing assault is toothless due to that, and new OC Chip Lengthy was pushed out at his final two stops. Tulane HC Willie Fritz criticized Lengthy – with out utilizing Lengthy’s identify – for not adapting his system to the expertise available and for painfully predictable playcalling. Aside from that, the whole lot’s nice.

If it’s attainable, there are much more issues on protection. Final 12 months’s group coughed up 455.2 YPG and ranked second-to-last within the nation in EPA/go. GT was bottom-20 in havoc price and bottom-10 in third-down price. Solely three starters return (on this case… perhaps factor?). DC Andrew Thacker likes to ship stress and muck up the field. The one a part of his technique that labored final 12 months was an above-average run protection (No. 47 EPA/run). Collins signed a bunch of transfers to fill roster spots, not a lot of them adorned.


Thor’s projected win whole: 2.6
Las Vegas win whole: 3.5
Thor’s wager: UNDER

My numbers help a play on the below, partly because of the circumstances mentioned above and partially as a result of one other bear of a schedule. Final 12 months, GT went 3-9 in opposition to the nation’s hardest SOS. This 12 months, the Yellow Jackets play Phil Steele’s No. 3 SOS. Not solely do I believe the below is a robust play in a vacuum, however there’s hidden further worth. Georgia Tech will hearth Collins and push for a youth motion if it begins poorly, strengthening the percentages of a barren end.

Duke Blue Devils
Thor’s Preseason Energy Rating: 112 out of 131




Away
Residence
Day
Unfold
Win odds


Temple
Duke
Fri, Sep 2
-8
0.791


Duke
Northwestern
Sat, Sep 10
12.5
0.113


NC A&T
Duke
Sat, Sep 17
-16.5
0.998


Duke
Kansas
Sat, Sep 24
7
0.248


Virginia
Duke
Sat, Oct 1
12.5
0.113


Duke
Georgia Tech
Sat, Oct 8
12
0.116


North Carolina
Duke
Sat, Oct 15
18.5
0


Duke
Miami (FL)
Sat, Oct 22
30.5
0


Duke
Boston School
Fri, Nov 4
16
0.019


Virginia Tech
Duke
Sat, Nov 12
13
0.107


Duke
Pittsburgh
Sat, Nov 19
27.5
0


Wake Forest
Duke
Sat, Nov 26
13.5
0.1

Duke went to 6 bowls in seven seasons throughout David Cutcliffe’s heyday, however the wheels have fallen off with a 6-21 skid since mid-2019. Duke employed Former Texas A&M and Notre Dame DC Mike Elko to make things better. Elko has 4 starters coming back from an honest offensive line that paved the best way for a 1,244-yard season from RB Mataeo Durant. The receiving corps can also be respectable. However Durant have to be changed, together with the portal-defection quarterback.

Duke employed Elko for his defensive prowess, which will likely be put to the take a look at in 12 months No.  1. Duke completed dead-last nationally in whole protection final 12 months. Duke couldn’t cease the run nor the go, didn’t generate stress and didn’t take the ball away. The brand new 4-2-5 has two robust returning starters at LB. But, alongside the road and within the secondary, the Blue Devils have enormous questions.


Thor’s projected win whole: 2.6
Las Vegas win whole: 3
Thor’s wager: UNDER

That is the uncommon whole wager prone to be determined in September – my numbers peg the Blue Devils as underdogs of 12 factors or extra within the closing eight video games. I mission Duke for two.15 wins in September. There may be that chance that Duke wins a 3rd, coming into October 3-1, needing just one extra win to torch below tickets. However my numbers say the Blue Devils have greater than a 50% likelihood of going winless in ACC play. I’m going below.

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Author: Carl Morris