Faculty Soccer Week 1: Early Strains, Odds & Predictions (2022)

Drake Maye

Right here’s an early take a look at Faculty Soccer Week 1 strains, odds, and predictions for the way issues will go this week.

*Word: ATL stands for “Adjusted Thor Line,” and ATT stands for “Adjusted Thor Whole.” Projected totals are primarily based on 2021 information and don’t account for personnel or schematic adjustments (ie carry that with you to your handicap)

CFB FD CTA




Away
Residence
ATL
Unfold
Distinction
ATT
Whole
Distinction
Day
CST


Central Michigan
Oklahoma St.
-16.2
-20.5
4.3
49
59
-10
Thursday
6:00


West Virginia
Pittsburgh
-17.8
-7.5
-10.3
60.5
51.5
9
Thursday
6:00


Ball St.
Tennessee
-32.9
-33.5
0.6
62.5
67.5
-5
Thursday
6:00


Penn St.
Purdue
3.4
3.5
-0.1
45
54
-9
Thursday
7:00


Louisiana Tech
Missouri
-11.4
-19
7.6
73.5
58.5
15
Thursday
7:00


New Mexico St.
Minnesota
-35.4
-37.5
2.1
60.5
55.5
5
Thursday
8:00


Western Michigan
Michigan St.
-30.3
-20
-10.3
61
55.5
5.5
Friday
6:00


Virginia Tech
Outdated Dominion
9.5
8.5
1.0
45
50.5
-5.5
Friday
6:00


Temple
Duke
-5.8
-6.5
0.7
60
52
8
Friday
6:30


Illinois
Indiana
3.1
-3.5
6.6
42
47.5
-5.5
Friday
7:00


TCU
Colorado
15.2
10.5
4.7
56.5
55.5
1
Friday
9:00


Texas St.
Nevada
0.6
-4.5
5.1
66
55
11
Saturday
4:30


Buffalo
Maryland
-17.3
-22.5
5.2
66
63
3
Saturday
11:00


Colorado St.
Michigan
-32.3
-27.5
-4.8
57
58.5
-1.5
Saturday
11:00


Rutgers
Boston Faculty
-5.7
-7.5
1.8
44.5
48
-3.5
Saturday
11:00


North Carolina
Appalachian St.
3.9
1.5
2.4
67.5
57
10.5
Saturday
11:00


North Carolina St.
East Carolina
12.7
11
1.7
58
56
2
Saturday
11:00


Bowling Inexperienced
UCLA
-24.7
-24.5
-0.2
62
57.5
4.5
Saturday
1:30


Cincinnati
Arkansas
-1.0
-5.5
4.5
58
52
6
Saturday
2:30


Oregon
Georgia
-11.1
-17.5
6.4
57
51.5
5.5
Saturday
2:30


Arizona
San Diego St.
-4.4
-6
1.6
44
47.5
-3.5
Saturday
2:30


Tulsa
Wyoming
4.1
4.5
-0.4
44
45.5
-1.5
Saturday
2:30


UTEP
Oklahoma
-30.1
-31.5
1.4
64
56
8
Saturday
2:30


Houston
UTSA
5.9
4
1.9
65
61.5
3.5
Saturday
2:30


Troy
Ole Miss
-17.3
-22.5
5.2
58
57.5
0.5
Saturday
3:00


Brigham Younger
South Florida
14.5
11.5
3.0
62
58.5
3.5
Saturday
3:00


Florida Atlantic
Ohio
4.0
3.5
0.5
48.5
49.5
-1
Saturday
5:00


Center Tennessee
James Madison
-0.5
-6.5
6.0
56
57
-1
Saturday
5:00


Rice
USC
-28.6
-34.5
5.9
60.5
64.5
-4
Saturday
5:00


Utah
Florida
5.9
2.5
3.4
60
50.5
9.5
Saturday
6:00


Miami (OH)
Kentucky
-15.5
-17.5
2.0
54
51.5
2.5
Saturday
6:00


Military
Coastal Carolina
-3.6
-2.5
-1.1
60.5
54.5
6
Saturday
6:00


Liberty
Southern Miss
4.7
3.5
1.2
47
50.5
-3.5
Saturday
6:00


Massachusetts
Tulane
-26.4
-29.5
3.1
63.5
59.5
4
Saturday
6:00


Utah St.
Alabama
-42.6
-40
-2.6
71
62.5
8.5
Saturday
6:30


Memphis
Mississippi St.
-14.9
-14.5
-0.4
60.5
57
3.5
Saturday
6:30


Georgia St.
South Carolina
-8.1
-12.5
4.4
46
56.5
-10.5
Saturday
6:30


Notre Dame
Ohio St.
-19.7
-17
-2.7
74
58.5
15.5
Saturday
6:30


SMU
North Texas
10.0
10.5
-0.5
68
68.5
-0.5
Saturday
6:30


Louisiana-Monroe
Texas
-39.1
-38.5
-0.6
69.5
66.5
3
Saturday
7:00


Louisville
Syracuse
6.6
4
2.6
58.5
58.5
0
Saturday
7:00


Boise St.
Oregon St.
-1.6
-3.5
1.9
56.5
57
-0.5
Saturday
9:30


Kent St.
Washington
-23.5
-21.5
-2.0
56.5
60
-3.5
Saturday
9:30


Western Kentucky
Hawai’i
12.0
13.5
-1.5
80.5
64
16.5
Saturday
10:59


Florida St.
LSU
-0.6
-3.5
2.9
55.5
51.5
4
Sunday
6:30


Clemson
Georgia Tech
23.9
21
2.9
47.0
48.5
-1.5
Monday
7:00

 

Faculty Soccer Sport Previews & Information

Virginia Tech (-8.5) at Outdated Dominion
ATL: VT -9.5

Virginia Tech projected beginning RB Malachi Thomas has been out with some type of leg harm for a number of weeks. The Hokies will roll with a platoon of Jalen Holston and Keshawn King in Week 1 in opposition to the Monarchs.

Virginia Tech’s offense might battle early on. Marshall switch QB Grant Wells takes over as starter behind an offensive line that has 4 true freshmen on the two-deep. And Virginia Tech’s receiving expertise is bottom-Twentieth percentile within the P5, maybe even bottom-Tenth.

In the meantime, ODU is sneaky-stocked in ability expertise with G5 stars RB Blake Watson and TE Zach Kuntz. Kuntz is one of the best tight finish in America that no one is aware of about.

Auburn vs. Mercer
ATL: N/A

Auburn QB T.J. Finley beat out fellow transfers Zach Calzada and Robby Ashford within the competitors to exchange Bo Nix. Auburn coaches have talked about Finley’s enchancment this offseason and imagine he has the firmest grasp of recent OC Eric Kiesau’s system.

We probably received’t get a lot helpful info from this matchup in opposition to an FCS workforce, however, usually, Auburn is a workforce to carefully monitor early within the season. The boosters aggressively got here for HC Bryan Harsin’s job over the spring however missed.

Whereas Harsin survived, the ice has solely gotten thinner beneath his ft for the reason that departure of the AD who employed him, Allen Greene. Will this squad rally round Harsin? In the event that they do, would Harsin use a bounce-back season to court docket job gives again out west, maybe a Pac-12 opening within the subsequent cycle? Or will issues go the opposite manner? In the event that they do, they’ll unravel rapidly, and Harsin might not survive the common season.

Duke (-6.5) vs. Temple
ATL: Duke -5.8

New Duke HC Mike Elko tabbed Riley Leonard as beginning QB. Leonard beat out Jordan Moore within the competitors to exchange Gunnar Holmberg, who transferred all the way down to FIU to run Mike MacIntyre’s first offense.

Leonard hasn’t proven a lot in restricted appears as a passer (37-of-62 for 381 yards, 1/1 TD/INT), however the highschool capturing guard has flashed extra mobility than he was given credit score for popping out of highschool. Duke will take offense from any supply it may get it from this fall.

Michigan (-27.5) vs. Colorado State
ATL: Michigan -32.3

Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh introduced incumbent beginning QB Cade McNamara will begin the opener in opposition to Colorado State, whereas JJ McCarthy will begin Sport 2 vs. Hawaii. Harbaugh says the everlasting starter will probably be introduced main into Week 3.

I can’t recall a camp battle being resolved this fashion. However it might have been essential to hold each within the fold throughout an unprecedented offseason of participant motion. McNamara gives the Wolverines high-floor cost-certainty, whereas McCarthy was a top-25 general recruit who would ostensibly elevate the ceiling of the offense whereas decreasing its flooring.

As for this sport, we do not know what to anticipate from early-on Colorado State, which remade its teaching employees and roster over the offseason. HC Jay Norvell’s Rams needs to be higher than Steve Addazio’s Rams in fairly quick order, however they’re unlikely to be aggressive proper out of the chute. Significantly on this matchup in opposition to a Wolverines workforce that went 5-1 ATS as 14-plus level favorites final yr.

Texas A&M vs. Sam Houston State
ATL: N/A

Texas A&M QB Haynes King beat out LSU switch Max Johnson and five-star freshman Connor Weigman for the beginning quarterback job.

King additionally received the job out of camp final yr however was knocked out with a season-ending harm in Week 2 after a robust efficiency within the opener in opposition to Kent State. With Johnson respiratory down his neck, King’s leash received’t be terribly lengthy. However issues don’t determine to get fascinating till the Miami sport in Week 3.

North Carolina (-1.5) at Appalachian State
ATL: UNC -3.9

UNC QB Drake Maye seemed good in his debut, going 29-of-37 for 294 yards and 5 TD whereas speeding for 55 yards in a 56-24 win over a Florida A&M workforce lacking quite a few contributors to eligibility points.

Whereas the Heels’ offense appears prefer it’s going to be strong, the protection appears prefer it’s going to be dangerous once more. I guess the beneath on UNC’s win complete this summer season and am feeling good concerning the early returns on that. ATL is exhibiting just a little line worth on UNC right here, however I must see how the Heels’ protection holds up in opposition to a good offense like this earlier than I can put troops in danger by investing in them.

5 early-week spreads of curiosity

Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs. West Virginia
ATL: Pitt -17.8

Wow, discuss an overlay! My system is exhibiting double-digits of level worth on the Panthers within the annual Yard Brawl rivalry sport. Easy clarification, actually: I’m larger on Pitt and decrease on West Virginia than the market.

Pitt can not win in the identical manner it did throughout final season’s 11-3 resurgence. Spherical 1 QB Kenny Pickett, Biletnikoff-winning WR Jordan Addison, OC Mark Whipple, and WR coach Brennan Marion, the 4 males most liable for the unbelievable year-over-year surge in passing output, are all gone.

However Pitt’s replacements for Pickett and Addison – portal provides QB Kedon Slovis (former USC starter) and ex-Akron WR Konata Mumpfield (96th percentile separation price in opposition to single protection, per PFF) – have been well-reasoned. The speeding assault needs to be higher this fall, with a deep secure of backs returning. That received’t make up for all of the regression approaching the passing aspect, but it surely’ll make up for some.

Moreover, Pitt’s protection needs to be higher. It returns seven starters from a unit that ranked No. 2 in sacks per sport and No. 5 in EPA/run final season. The 2021 unit completed No. 29 SP+. This yr’s appears needs to be top-25.

In brief: Pitt’s contingency plan for anticipated regression jives with me. West Virginia’s doesn’t.

The Mountaineers are 16-17 over HC Neal Brown’s three-year tenure after final season’s 6-7 step-back. Brown pushed out OC Gerad Parker and former beginning QB Jarret Doege over the offseason and changed them with Air Raid guru OC Graham Harrell and former USC/Georgia QB JT Daniels. These swaps have been high-quality, however Brown couldn’t forestall WR1 Winston Wright from fleeing to Florida State within the portal, and his RB room is unproven.

The largest concern is the protection, a unit that has saved a sagging offense the previous few years. This time round, WVU loses its top-five tacklers and solely returns 4 starters. There are notably huge questions within the secondary, which is being remade from the bottom up. I see West Virginia as a 3-9 or 4-8 workforce that fires Brown. The market sees West Virginia as a coinflip to go bowling.

Missouri (-19) vs. Louisiana Tech
ATL: Mizzou -11.4

Louisiana Tech o4.5 wins was certainly one of my favourite overs within the G5 this summer season. New HC Sonny Cumbie ought to get the passing offense off the bottom rapidly. The 2 guys battling for the QB job (Matthew Downing and Parker McNeil) performed for him at previous stops, the WR corps is stacked, and the blindside safety unit on the left aspect of the road is top-notch for the G5.

If LTU’s passing offense is certainly prepared for primetime this weekend, it’s not going to have bother shifting the ball on this horrible Missouri protection. The Tigers completed exterior the top-100 in each speeding and passing YPA allowed final fall.

LTU’s protection can be going to drastically enhance upon final season’s No. 118 SP+ end with eight starters again. And whereas Missouri has a brand new offensive toy to play with in five-star WR Luther Burden, it could be a shock if that unit improved upon final season’s No. 52 SP+ end after dropping workhorse RB Tyer Badie to the NFL.

I imagine the Bulldogs have a a lot stronger shot at bowl eligibility than the market does. And I feel there’s a greater shot Missouri goes 4-8 than the 6-6 the open market leans in direction of.

Indiana (-3.5) vs. Illinois
ATL: Illinois -3.1

This was a extremely shocking opening quantity. Significantly following Illinois’ season-opening blowout win over Wyoming. Illinois appears a bit improved over final season. Indiana, then again?

The offense may be rotten once more. Former Mizzou QB Connor Bazelak is a downgrade on a wholesome Michael Penix. The RB room stays barren. The WR room has grow to be so. The protection might be middle-of-the-road, but it surely’s going to have to determine what appears to be a weak front-seven to get there.

I imagine the fallacious workforce is favored right here. I just like the Illini.

TCU (-10.5) at Colorado
ATL: TCU -15.2

TCU was tied with USC for the largest leap in my energy rankings from the tip of final yr to the start of this yr. Final yr’s workforce had two major points, the passing sport and the protection. Each needs to be a lot improved in 2022.

TCU QB Max Duggan, the starter for many of final season, completed No. 19 within the FBS in turnover-worthy throw price and No. 73 in adjusted accuracy. QB Chandler Morris is a a lot better match for brand new HC Sonny Dykes’ Air Raid offense. And TCU has the personnel to take to the air-based assault rapidly, with one of many nation’s finest receiving corps and a possible top-25 OL.

Final yr’s TCU protection gave up 10.7 PPG greater than it gave up the yr earlier than. With eight starters returning on that aspect of the ball, the Horned Frogs will probably be nearer to its 2020 quantity (24.2) than 2021 (34.9).

Whereas TCU returns 18 starters and ranks No. 9 in Phil Steele’s returning expertise chart, Colorado was crushed by switch portal defections. The Buffaloes misplaced 23 gamers to the portal (which I imagine led the nation). HC Karl Dorrell was pressured to play protection within the portal, signing guys simply to plug ever-expanding defection holes.

Final yr’s Buffs stunk. This yr’s model will certainly be worse. I see a 1-11 or 2-10 season coming, and I don’t assume Dorrell survives all 12 video games.

There’s worth on TCU at this quantity.

Arkansas (-5.5) vs. Cincinnati
ATL: Arkansas -1

The market spent the summer season specializing in Cincinnati’s losses, notably QB Desmond Ridder (R3), RB Jerome Ford (R5), and WR Alec Pierce (R2) on offense, and CB Sauce Gardner (No. 4 general), CB Coby Bryant (R4), S Bryan Prepare dinner (R2) and EDGE Myjai Sanders (R3) on protection.

Maybe not sufficient was made on the quantity of expertise HC Luke Fickell introduced in and the ready-made replacements already readily available on account of Fickell’s growth system. Fickell added a top-25 recruiting class and a number of influence transfers to plug holes. Former Cincy signee QB Ben Bryant was re-imported from EMU to compete with four-star Evan Prater. RB Corey Kiner, a neighborhood child who initially signed with LSU, leads a deep secure of backs.

The market doesn’t appear to be making as a lot of Arkansas’ losses. WR Treylon Burks is gone, and solely 4 starters return on protection. It’s potential that the offense and protection might each be in for a slight step backward.

My system feels that that is too many factors, projecting this sport as nearer to a decide ‘em. The market remains to be feeling it out, and Vegas goes to permit it that chance after opening this quantity in a lifeless zone.

This isn’t an early-week guess for me, however I will probably be monitoring each side carefully these subsequent few days to attempt to confirm if certainly there’s worth available in a contrarian play backing the Bearcats.

CFB FD CTA

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Faculty Soccer, Picks

Author: Carl Morris