High NFL Futures Bets: NFC Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

NFL Futures Odds Picks

sing Vegas totals and spreads from every NFL sport on SuperBook Colorado, we are able to estimate the ultimate rating to mission the variety of factors for and in opposition to every group. Then, we are able to use the Pythagorean expectation to calculate the variety of wins Vegas estimates every group to have. Except particularly talked about, we’ve assumed the house group is the favourite, and the away group is the underdog in any decide ’em.

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High NFL Futures Bets: NFC Odds, Picks & Predictions

NFC West

Workforce
Anticipated Factors For
Anticipated Factors Allowed
Pythagorean Win Whole
Vegas Win Whole

Los Angeles Rams
448
392
9.8
10.5

San Francisco 49ers
415
362
9.9
10.0

Arizona Cardinals
418.75
418.25
8.5
8.5

Seattle Seahawks
341.5
415.5
6.6
5.5

 

Los Angeles Rams

The reigning Tremendous Bowl champs are doubtless nonetheless a high 5 group within the league. Their Pythagorean Win whole places them simply exterior the highest 5, sitting behind the Payments, Buccaneers, Packers, Chiefs, and the 49ers. Extra on the 9ers in a second.
Los Angeles continues to be anticipated to be elite at scoring factors. The group put up 460 factors in 2021 and is now projected to attain 448, which is high 5. So long as the Matthew Stafford/Cooper Kupp connection is alive and properly in 2022, there’s no motive this unit can’t rating among the many high 5 within the league.
Projections have the Rams being common on protection in 2022, very like they had been in 2021. The group allowed the 18th most factors and is now anticipated to permit the fifteenth most.

Wager: I feel it’s doubtless this group nonetheless wins the division, and I’d be inclined to take it at +125 if I didn’t assume there was higher worth on the 49ers. On condition that the Rams have the 2nd hardest energy of schedule and a Pythagorean win whole slightly below their whole win line, I’ll steer clear of betting something aside from the Rams to win the division, however there’s little or no worth.

San Francisco 49ers

Proper now, the 49ers are favored in 13 video games, which doesn’t embody the 2 decide ’ems in opposition to Kansas Metropolis and Tampa Bay at residence in San Francisco. That is two extra wins than the Rams, regardless of the 49ers being projected to attain 30 fewer factors. The 49ers’ Pythagorean win whole is 9.86, which isn’t solely the most effective in the complete NFC West but in addition the highest 5 throughout the league.
It appears odd, provided that Trey Lance hasn’t but had an actual alternative to start out.
Defensively, this unit is poised to be the most effective in soccer. The 49ers are projected to permit the fewest factors within the league, 362, after permitting 365 final season, the Ninth fewest.

Wager: Given the excessive expectations from Vegas within the type of being favorites and permitting such few factors, I feel there may be good worth on San Francisco to win the division at +200. If (like me) you assume the Rams will win the division and don’t need to take the danger, the 49ers to win greater than 9.5 video games feels nice too.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are one among two groups projected to attain greater than 400 factors whereas nonetheless being favored in 8 or fewer video games (the opposite is the Bengals). On paper, The Cardinals’ end with o8.5 wins at plus cash seems like a cut price. Murray regarded like a reliable MVP contender with the Cardinals beginning final season 7-0.
Sadly, soccer isn’t performed on paper. The Cardinals are taking part in 4 video games in opposition to the AFC West, twice in opposition to the Rams, and per week 16 sport in opposition to Tampa Bay.

Wager: 8.5 video games is a completely cheap line and one which the Pythagorean Expectation leans over on. On condition that it’s at plus odds, it seems like good worth.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are anticipated to be a bottom-of-the-barrel group in 2021 and an absolute rebuild mode. Regardless of scoring 395 factors final season (the sixteenth most, a really common quantity), Seattle is predicted to attain 341 factors in 2022. This will likely not seem to be a giant distinction, however the distinction of -53.5 factors is the 4th largest distinction of any NFL group.
The group is predicted to take a big step again on protection – permitting one other 49.5 factors. This distinction is the fifth largest.

Wager: Regardless of a Pythagorean win whole of 6.5 factors, I don’t assume there’s a likelihood Seattle wins even seven video games. I’ll take underneath six wins the place accessible.

NFC East

Workforce
Anticipated Factors For
Anticipated Factors Allowed
Pythagorean Win Whole
Vegas Win Whole

Dallas Cowboys
437
391.5
9.6
10.5

Philadelphia Eagles
407.75
377.25
9.3
9.5

Washington Commanders
371.25
388.75
8.0
7.5

New York Giants
355.5
400.5
7.3
7.5

 

Dallas Cowboys

The very best-scoring group from 2021 comes into 2022 with excessive expectations. On paper, a high n PFF graded offensive line with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Zeke Elliot needs to be poised for one more high 5 offensive season. 
Vegas expects this group to take a small step again, doubtless from the lack of Amari Cooper. Dallas is predicted to complete with 437 factors; this quantity is high 7 throughout the league and 4th highest within the NFC. 
The Cowboys’ defensive unit was a high 10 in 2021, permitting 358 factors, the seventh fewest.  The lack of Randy Gregory is predicted to have a big affect, provided that the Cowboys are projected to be a really common protection, permitting 391.5 factors, the seventeenth most. 

Wager: Dallas’ Pythagorean win expectation is about at simply round 9.5, a full win decrease than 10.5. I, too, have excessive expectations for this group, however given their abysmal offseason, I’ll lean underneath this whole.

Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts was one of the thrilling quarterbacks to look at in 2021. The Eagles impressed on offense, scoring 444 factors. Many anticipate Jalen Hurts to take a large leap ahead in his third 12 months, but Vegas tasks this group to attain simply 407.75 factors, 36 factors fewer. That is on high of the addition of all-star AJ Brown.
This unit is predicted to stay common on protection, permitting eight fewer factors than final season. 
Thankfully, the Eagles have the 2nd best energy of schedule. Although it’s a bit regarding that the group is predicted to attain fewer factors, hopefully, it’s indicative of much less explosive 4th quarters; the Eagles scored 8.6 factors per sport within the 4th quarter in 2022, the sixth most.
The group’s Pythagorean win whole of 9.3 has me feeling like their win whole of 9.5 is precisely priced.

Wager: Given their straightforward schedule and my lack of religion in Dallas, +185 for Philly to win the division has distinctive worth.

New York Giants

My solely hope for New York this season is that this group stays wholesome. I need to see if Saquon is as proficient and NFL-ready as he was promised to be again in 2017. Season after season since 2012, the Giants have upset. This group has averaged 6.1 wins regardless of a single successful season.
Thankfully, there are some excessive hopes for the Giants this season they’re anticipated to attain an astounding 97.5 factors extra this season. Solely the Jaguars are anticipated to see a bigger enchancment vs. final season.
Nonetheless, New York’s win whole line and Pythagorean line are each sitting round 7.5, which doesn’t supply a lot worth.

Wager: Given the Giants are favored in simply 5 video games, I feel underneath 7.5 wins is the sensible play. 

 Washington Commanders

The Commanders; potential consequence in 2022 rely totally on Carson Wentz. If Wentz ever returns to his 2017 type, he might really be an elite quarterback within the NFL. We’ve seen that it’s not prone to occur, and Vegas projections would agree. The Commanders are anticipated to attain 50 fewer factors this season, regardless of an” “improve” from Taylor Heinicke to Carson Wentz. They haven’t seen too many different adjustments to their offense.
Washington allowed the eighth most factors in 2021. With a wholesome Chase Younger, this unit is projected to be a high half unit, permitting almost 50 factors much less in 2022. 
The Pythagorean win whole for Washington sits at 8 – a strong half win greater than their line of seven.5.

Wager: In case you’re a believer in Carson Wentz, that is a simple decide on the over. In case you’re not –it’s one of many best bets to keep away from.

NFC South

Workforce
Anticipated Factors For
Anticipated Factors Allowed
Pythagorean Win Whole
Vegas Win Whole

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
463.25
376.75
10.5
11.5

New Orleans Saints
372.5
377.5
8.4
8.5

Carolina Panthers
346
402.5
7.0
6.5

Atlanta Falcons
340.75
438.25
6.0
5.0

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Tom is returning for yet another, and Vegas expects this unit to attain essentially the most factors of any NFL group (463.25) after scoring the second-most (511) in 2021. There isn’t any doubt that this can be a conservative quantity provided that the group is favored in all however one sport: per week 14 decide ’em’ in opposition to San Francisco.
On protection, this group is predicted to resemble the identical unit that allowed the fifth fewest factors in 2021. The group is predicted to permit 376.75 factors, 23 greater than their 2021 whole, and the seventh fewest.

Wager: On the finish of the day, there’s no betting in opposition to Tom Brady. Give me all of the overs, championships, and perhaps even a Tremendous Bowl. Tom Brady is simply that dude.

New Orleans Saints

Earlier than dropping Jameis Winston in week 8 of 2021, the Saints averaged 23.3 factors per sport. The rest of the season was bleak with the Saints going 4-6, however followers have motive to be optimistic about 2022 with Michael Thomas returning and the addition of Ohio State stand-out Chris Olave.
That’s till you think about Vegas tasks this unit to attain 20.4 factors per sport and simply 8.5 extra whole (372.5) than they scored final season (364). Not a lot is predicted to alter on protection, and the Pythagorean win whole sits proper at their 8.5 vegas line.
Vegas totals don’t inform us a lot else aside from this group shall be nothing however common. They’ve a virtually non-existent likelihood to win the division and the Ninth-hardest energy of schedule.

Wager: I’d steer clear of all issues New Orleans.

Carolina Panthers

Baker Mayfield is a Carolina Panther, and I’m unsure that adjustments anybody’s outlook. Vegas nonetheless has Carolina’s win whole sitting at 6.5 – a quantity backed by their Pythagorean win whole.
Carolina is projected to attain 346 factors and permit 402.5; each numbers mission to be backside ten within the league. The excellent news is the Panthers have a Pythagorean win whole of seven.
It’s definitely attainable that Baker Mayfield and a wholesome Christian McCaffery will deliver life again to this mediocre offense since 2017. In spite of everything, Baker Mayfield has a .500 file as a starter and is becoming a member of a group that’s seen a number of profitable seasons up to now few a long time (sorry, Browns followers).

Wager: I’ll lean over 6.5 wins at plus cash however will personally keep away. 

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta has not posted a successful season since their 2017 Tremendous Bowl hangover. Final season was the primary time Matt Ryan failed to complete within the high 10 quarterbacks by passing yardage since 2009. Certain, a few of that’s his age, however the Falcons roster has been underwhelming.
In 2022, the Falcons are anticipated to start out Marcus Mariota and are projected to complete with 340.75 factors, the second-fewest; and permit 438.25, the second most. In 2021, the Falcons allowed 459 factors, the third most.

Wager: A lot should go proper for this Atlanta Falcons group to indicate life on offense. The Pythagorean anticipated win whole for Atlanta is a strong 6.0 wins, which supplies some room to wager over 5 wins, however the Falcons are solely favored in 2 video games this season (the second-fewest). I received’t discover myself betting on this group.

NFC North

Workforce
Anticipated Factors For
Anticipated Factors Allowed
Pythagorean Win Whole
Vegas Win Whole

Inexperienced Bay Packers
446.25
368.75
10.4
11.0

Minnesota Vikings
411.5
390.5
9.0
9.0

Detroit Lions
360.5
421.5
6.9
6.5

Chicago Bears
343
407.5
6.8
6.5

 

Inexperienced Bay Packers

Again-to-Again MVP Aaron Rodgers helped his group end the 2021 season high 10 in factors for (450). Regardless of the lack of Davante Adams, early Vegas projections don’t have Inexperienced Bay falling behind all that a lot in 2022. Inexperienced Bay is predicted to attain 446.25 factors, simply 3.75 factors fewer and high 5 within the NFL. Aaron Rodgers will discover a new primary on this offense.
The Packers have the most effective defensive backfields in soccer and the most effective defensive models they’ve had in a very long time. It’s why the Packers are projected to permit the 4th fewest factors in 2022, 368.75.

Wager: There isn’t any future right here too daring for the Packers. This group ought to win the division simply so -165 isn’t too steep for the division, neither is +1200 to win the Tremendous Bowl. This group shall be a contender till the very finish.

Minnesota Vikings

Usually, we get fantasy, and actual soccer confused. There’s little doubt that the duo of RB Dalvin Prepare dinner and WR Justin Jefferson might be the most effective within the league, however that doesn’t imply this group is poised for greatness.
Many recommend the addition of former LA Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell might envigorate this group. Nonetheless, the Vikings are projected for 411.5 factors this season – 13.5 fewer than they scored final season.
The protection added former Packer Za’Darius Smith and is predicted to take a step ahead this season. The Vikings are projected to permit 390.5 factors this season, 35.5 fewer than they allowed final season.
Finally, this places Minnesota with a Pythagorean win whole of 9 wins – proper on track of their 9-win whole line.
I’ll depart you with this: Since 2011, twelve first-year head coaches have joined a group who completed with eight or extra wins within the earlier season. These coaches have by no means completed the season with extra wins than within the earlier season.
It’s additionally true that Kirk Cousins has solely had one season with greater than 9 wins.

Wager: It’s contrarian, however I’ll take the Vikings underneath 9 wins.

Chicago Bears

Regardless of having a 6.5 win whole, the Bears are favored in solely two video games subsequent season: their residence video games in opposition to the Texans and the Lions. As if that isn’t unhealthy sufficient, projections have the Bears scoring simply 32 extra factors subsequent season, lower than two extra factors per sport.
The Bears will want all the pieces to go proper to the highest of that 6.5-game mark. Through the low season, the Bears misplaced three-time All-Professional Khalil Mack, Professional-Bowler Allen Robinson, Danny Trevathan, and Tarik Cohen — amongst others. In the meantime, Justin Fields’ supporting solid consists of Equanimeous St. Brown and Byron Pringle – two receivers who didn’t make an affect with their future HOF quarterbacks.

Wager: Even with a Pythagorean win whole of 6.8, I lean underneath 6.5 wins.

Detroit Lions

De’Andre Swift is somebody I’m very excited to look at in 2022. Just like the Bears, the Lions aren’t anticipated to make any massive steps ahead on offense, as they’re anticipated to attain 35.5 factors greater than they did final season.
Sadly, the Lions aren’t anticipated to get a lot better on protection both. After permitting the 2nd most factors in 2021, the Lions are anticipated to permit 467 factors, the 4th most.

Wager: The Lions have a Pythagorean win whole of 6.9, which bodes properly for over 6.5 wins, however there isn’t sufficient worth to contemplate taking it. I’ll keep away.

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NFL, Picks

Author: Carl Morris