Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 12 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Finest Bets

Justin Herbert

On this article every week, I current 1) my private unfold projections for every recreation, 2) the bets towards the unfold (ATS) that I like and three) the 5 video games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m probably to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my closing 5 for the competition and embed that tweet right here as an replace.

I monitor all of my picks collectively within the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.

Prop Wager Analyzer: View high rated props and historic prop efficiency by participant >>

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Week 11 File

Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-5 (+2.55 models)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2

Yr-to-Date File

Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 77-63-2 (+7.9 models)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 28-22

All odds are from our BettingPros matchups web page, the place you possibly can see the proportion distributions of unfold, over/beneath and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

Freedman’s Week 12 Projections Towards the Unfold

Listed here are my private unfold projections for every Week 11 recreation, ordered based on when every recreation kicks off. The consensus strains are pulled from our BettingPros odds web page on Wednesday and are introduced — together with my projected strains and edges — from the attitude of the house workforce. (For the Mexico recreation, the Cardinals are technically the house workforce.)

Word: I replace my private projections in addition to our premium BettingPros unfold projections all through the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Nov. 23, at 4 pm ET. 

Dwelling Crew
Street Crew
Consensus Line
Freedman Line
Projected Edge

DET
BUF
9.5
7.75
-1.75

DAL
NYG
-10
-8.5
1.5

MIN
NE
-2.5
-2
0.5

CAR
DEN
2
2.5
0.5

MIA
HOU
-13.5
-13.75
-0.25

NYJ
CHI
-4.5
-3.75
0.75

CLE
TB
3.5
3.5
0

JAX
BAL
4
2.75
-1.25

WAS
ATL
-4.5
-2.5
2

TEN
CIN
2
0.5
-1.5

ARI
LAC
3.5
3
-0.5

SEA
LV
-3.5
-4.5
-1

KC
LAR
-14.5
-14.25
0.25

SF
NO
-9.5
-8
1.5

PHI
GB
-6.5
-6.5
0

IND
PIT
-2.5
-3.5
-1

 

Primarily based on my present unfold projections in addition to different elements (matchup specifics, accidents, and so on.), I’m prepared to guess on three groups at their consensus strains.

Falcons +4.5 at Commanders
Titans +2 vs. Bengals
Seahawks -3.5 vs. Raiders

Freedman’s Week 12 ATS Wager Breakdowns

Listed here are stats and notes for the 5 video games with unfold bets I like proper now.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders

Take a look at our Falcons at Commanders matchup web page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: FedExField
TV: FOX

Falcons at Commanders: Consensus Unfold & Betting Percentages

Share information from Motion Community and as of Nov. 23.

Unfold: Falcons +4.5
Betting Percentages: Commanders – 56% bets, 75% cash

Falcons at Commanders: 2022 ATS Information

Information from Motion Community and goes again to 2003. Abbreviations: Towards the unfold (ATS), return on funding (ROI).

Falcons ATS: 7-4 (21.6% ROI)
Commanders ATS: 6-4-1 (13.1% ROI)

Falcons at Commanders: Notable Development

QB Marcus Mariota: 6-2 ATS (43.3% ROI) as underdog with Falcons

Falcons at Commanders: Crew Statistics

Superior information from RBs Don’t Matter and Soccer Outsiders. Fundamental stats from Professional Soccer Reference. Common season solely. Abbreviations: Anticipated Factors Added (EPA), Success Price (SR), Protection-Adjusted Worth Over Common (DVOA).

Falcons Offense vs. Commanders Protection

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.024
15
-0.051
7
-8

Complete SR
46.5%
11
40.1%
2
-9

Complete DVOA
6.3%
12
-5.8%
12
0

Dropback EPA
0.055
15
0.01
9
-6

Dropback SR
48.6%
10
42.7%
4
-6

Move DVOA
13.9%
15
5.3%
16
1

Adj. Sack Price
9.6%
30
7.9%
12
-18

Rush EPA
-0.005
6
-0.156
3
-3

Rush SR
44.4%
5
35.5%
4
-1

Rush DVOA
5.1%
8
-22.0%
2
-6

Adj. Line Yards
4.84
4
4.09
7
3

Yards per Play
5.4
16
5.2
9
-7

Factors per Sport
23.5
12
20.3
12
0

 

Commanders Offense vs. Falcons Protection

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
-0.061
25
0.079
28
3

Complete SR
40.7%
28
49.0%
31
3

Complete DVOA
-13.1%
27
10.8%
28
1

Dropback EPA
-0.051
26
0.129
28
2

Dropback SR
42.4%
28
52.0%
30
2

Move DVOA
-5.8%
28
18.4%
28
0

Adj. Sack Price
8.3%
20
4.6%
30
10

Rush EPA
-0.076
22
0.006
26
4

Rush SR
38.3%
25
44.6%
26
1

Rush DVOA
-14.9%
25
1.2%
24
-1

Adj. Line Yards
4.09
28
4.77
27
-1

Yards per Play
4.8
29
5.9
28
-1

Factors per Sport
19.5
23
24.9
27
4

 

Falcons at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics

Information from RBs Don’t Matter, Professional Soccer Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Share Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Try (AY/A), Adjusted Complete Quarterback Score (QBR), Quarterback Elo Worth (QB Elo). 2022 information: Min. 176 performs for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 go makes an attempt per scheduled recreation for AY/A. Min. 20 motion performs per recreation for QBR.

2022: Marcus Mariota

Metric
Output
Rank

EPA + CPOE
0.087
15

AY/A
7.3
11

QBR
57.1
11

ATS Worth vs. Avg.
-0.7
27

 

Profession: Marcus Mariota

AY/A: 7.2
QB Elo per Sport: -13.6

2022: Taylor Heinicke

Metric
Output
Rank

EPA + CPOE
0.054
23

AY/A
6.4
23

ATS Worth vs. Avg.
-1.6
34

 

Profession: Taylor Heinicke

AY/A: 6.2
QB Elo per Sport: -36.0

Key Takeaway: These Groups Are Even

Many energy rankings have these two groups as near even. For instance …

In my private energy rankings (earlier than taking Week 12-specific accidents into consideration), I’ve the Commanders at -2 and the Falcons at -3 relative to a mean workforce on a impartial area.

There’s not a lot that separates these groups, and so they match up evenly.

On offense, the Commanders are No. 27 in DVOA; on protection, the Falcons are No. 28.

On protection, the Commanders are No. 12 in DVOA; on offense, the Falcons are additionally No. 12.

Within the operating and passing video games, no massive edges current themselves for both workforce.

And it’s not as if the Commanders have a outstanding home-field benefit.

I don’t see why this line needs to be above the important thing variety of +3.

Finest Line: Falcons +4.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Advisable: Falcons +3.5 (-115)
Private Projection: Falcons +2.5

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Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans

Take a look at our Bengals at Titans matchup web page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: Nissan Stadium
TV: CBS

Bengals at Titans: Consensus Unfold & Betting Percentages

Share information from Motion Community and as of Nov. 23.

Unfold: Titans +2
Betting Percentages: Bengals – 39% bets, 83% cash

Bengals at Titans: 2022 ATS Information

Information from Motion Community and goes again to 2003. Abbreviations: Towards the unfold (ATS), return on funding (ROI).

Bengals ATS: 7-3 (33.6% ROI)
Titans ATS: 8-2 (54.1% ROI)

Bengals at Titans: Notable Traits

HC Mike Vrabel: 22-12 ATS (24.4% ROI) as underdog
HC Mike Vrabel: 9-4 ATS (32.8% ROI) as house underdog

Bengals at Titans: Crew Statistics

Superior information from RBs Don’t Matter and Soccer Outsiders. Fundamental stats from Professional Soccer Reference. Common season solely. Abbreviations: Anticipated Factors Added (EPA), Success Price (SR), Protection-Adjusted Worth Over Common (DVOA).

Bengals Offense vs. Titans Protection

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.108
4
-0.024
12
8

Complete SR
48.6%
4
40.1%
2
-2

Complete DVOA
9.0%
8
-8.6%
9
1

Dropback EPA
0.179
4
0.035
12
8

Dropback SR
50.8%
5
43.6%
8
3

Move DVOA
20.2%
10
2.5%
13
3

Adj. Sack Price
8.6%
23
7.3%
18
-5

Rush EPA
-0.034
12
-0.168
1
-11

Rush SR
44.1%
7
31.4%
1
-6

Rush DVOA
5.1%
9
-31.2%
1
-8

Adj. Line Yards
4.50
14
3.45
1
-13

Yards per Play
5.6
12
5.4
14
2

Factors per Sport
26.5
3
18.5
8
5

 

Titans Offense vs. Bengals Protection

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
-0.009
21
-0.025
11
-10

Complete SR
43.2%
19
42.4%
9
-10

Complete DVOA
0.0%
18
-4.3%
13
-5

Dropback EPA
0.064
14
-0.033
7
-7

Dropback SR
47.3%
13
42.7%
4
-9

Move DVOA
16.5%
12
-3.0%
10
-2

Adj. Sack Price
9.2%
27
4.9%
28
1

Rush EPA
-0.083
25
-0.013
24
-1

Rush SR
38.9%
23
41.9%
17
-6

Rush DVOA
-1.1%
14
-5.8%
16
2

Adj. Line Yards
4.64
7
4.53
20
13

Yards per Play
5.2
19
5.3
12
-7

Factors per Sport
19.3
24
21.5
15
-9

 

Bengals at Titans: Quarterback Statistics

Information from RBs Don’t Matter, Professional Soccer Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Share Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Try (AY/A), Adjusted Complete Quarterback Score (QBR), Quarterback Elo Worth (QB Elo). 2022 information: Min. 176 performs for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 go makes an attempt per scheduled recreation for AY/A. Min. 20 motion performs per recreation for QBR.

2022: Joe Burrow

Metric
Output
Rank

EPA + CPOE
0.142
5

AY/A
8
7

QBR
55.7
12

ATS Worth vs. Avg.
2.7
5

 

Profession: Joe Burrow

AY/A: 8.0
QB Elo per Sport: 36.8

2022: Ryan Tannehill

Metric
Output
Rank

EPA + CPOE
0.106
10

AY/A
8.2
6

QBR
53.1
16

ATS Worth vs. Avg.
-0.3
23

 

Profession: Ryan Tannehill

AY/A: 7.2
QB Elo per Sport: -4.8

Key Takeaway: The Titans Have the Peripheral Edge

I’ve the Bengals rated two factors larger (earlier than adjusting for Week 12-specific accidents) — however the Titans have a couple of elements of their favor.

First, they’ve three additional days of relaxation after enjoying final week on Thursday Evening Soccer — and HC Mike Vrabel is 9-0 ATS with 10-plus days between video games within the common season.

Moreover, Vrabel’s Titans have been robust as underdogs (22-12 ATS), as famous above, and so they’ve been particularly robust as house canine (9-4 ATS).

Lastly, the Titans have had an unreal home-field benefit of seven.02 factors over the previous 16 weeks (per NFElo). Now, I’m definitely not assigning them a home-field benefit that robust. Regression will strike finally.

However Nissan Stadium has not been a simple place to play for guests because the Titans’ stretch run final yr, and that shouldn’t be ignored.

Put all of that collectively, and I’ve this recreation as near a decide’em.

Finest Line: Titans +2.5 (-112, FanDuel)
First Advisable: Titans +2.5 (-112)
Private Projection: Titans +0.5

Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks

Take a look at our Raiders at Seahawks matchup web page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
Location: Lumen Discipline
TV: CBS

Raiders at Seahawks: Consensus Unfold & Betting Percentages

Share information from Motion Community and as of Nov. 23.

Unfold: Seahawks -3.5
Betting Percentages: Seahawks – 68% bets, 71% cash

Raiders at Seahawks: 2022 ATS Information

Information from Motion Community and goes again to 2003. Abbreviations: Towards the unfold (ATS), return on funding (ROI).

Raiders ATS: 4-6 (-22.1% ROI)
Seahawks  ATS: 6-4 (14.2% ROI)

Raiders at Seahawks: Notable Development

QB Geno Smith: 5-1 ATS (60.7% ROI) at house with Seahawks

Raiders at Seahawks: Crew Statistics

Superior information from RBs Don’t Matter and Soccer Outsiders. Fundamental stats from Professional Soccer Reference. Common season solely. Abbreviations: Anticipated Factors Added (EPA), Success Price (SR), Protection-Adjusted Worth Over Common (DVOA).

Raiders Offense vs. Seahawks Protection

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.026
13
0.04
21
8

Complete SR
42.7%
21
41.6%
7
-14

Complete DVOA
4.0%
15
1.4%
17
2

Dropback EPA
0.092
12
0.107
24
12

Dropback SR
43.0%
26
45.0%
12
-14

Move DVOA
10.4%
18
7.1%
17
-1

Adj. Sack Price
6.3%
11
8.1%
10
-1

Rush EPA
-0.096
27
-0.058
17
-10

Rush SR
42.3%
12
36.6%
5
-7

Rush DVOA
5.5%
6
-5.4%
17
11

Adj. Line Yards
5.10
1
4.47
18
17

Yards per Play
5.6
12
5.5
16
4

Factors per Sport
22.5
16
24.1
22
6

 

Seahawks Offense vs. Raiders Protection

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.063
8
0.091
29
21

Complete SR
46.1%
12
48.5%
29
17

Complete DVOA
10.5%
7
17.2%
32
25

Dropback EPA
0.119
7
0.224
32
25

Dropback SR
52.5%
3
52.5%
31
28

Move DVOA
31.5%
4
32.5%
32
28

Adj. Sack Price
8.8%
24
4.6%
30
6

Rush EPA
-0.033
11
-0.105
7
-4

Rush SR
35.1%
31
42.5%
20
-11

Rush DVOA
-5.1%
20
-1.5%
22
2

Adj. Line Yards
4.23
21
4.32
14
-7

Yards per Play
6
4
5.9
28
24

Factors per Sport
25.7
5
24.2
24
19

 

Raiders at Seahawks: Quarterback Statistics

Information from RBs Don’t Matter, Professional Soccer Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Share Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Try (AY/A), Adjusted Complete Quarterback Score (QBR), Quarterback Elo Worth (QB Elo). 2022 information: Min. 176 performs for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 go makes an attempt per scheduled recreation for AY/A. Min. 20 motion performs per recreation for QBR.

2022: Derek Carr

Metric
Output
Rank

EPA + CPOE
0.079
17

AY/A
7.2
13

QBR
59.1
8

ATS Worth vs. Avg.
0.4
16

 

Profession: Derek Carr

AY/A: 7.1
QB Elo per Sport: -4.3

2022: Geno Smith

Metric
Output
Rank

EPA + CPOE
0.149
4

AY/A
8.3
5

QBR
67.3
4

ATS Worth vs. Avg.
1.7
11

 

Profession: Geno Smith

AY/A: 6.5
QB Elo per Sport: -36.3

Key Matchup: Seahawks Move Offense vs. Raiders Move Protection

In my private unit energy rankings, I’ve QB Geno Smith slotted within the high eight on the place — and the Raiders are my No. 32 secondary.

The matchup of Seahawks go offense vs. Raiders go protection might hardly be extra skewed.

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

Dropback EPA
0.119
7
0.224
32
25

Dropback SR
0.525
3
0.525
31
28

Move DVOA
0.315
4
0.325
32
28

 

Provided that the Seahawks are off the bye and at house, the place they’ve a real benefit with the raucous twelfth man, I see them successful by greater than a area aim.

Finest Line: Seahawks -3.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Advisable: Seahawks -3.5 (-106)
Private Projection: Seahawks -4.5

Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Lengthy Contests

Listed here are the 5 unfold bets that (proper now) I’m leaning towards within the DraftKings picks contest.

Chargers -2.5 at Cardinals
Falcons +4.5 at Commanders
Titans +2 vs. Bengals
Seahawks -3.5 vs. Raiders
Giants +10.5 at Cowboys

One complicating issue: Like many others, I had my DraftKings account hacked early this week — and I’m nonetheless unable to entry it. So there’s an excellent probability I gained’t be coming into any Thanksgiving video games into the competition.

Search for my tweet replace on Sunday earlier than kickoff.

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