Listed here are our odds, picks, and predictions for each NFL sport on the Week 3 slate.
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NFL Week 3 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Steelers vs. Browns
Final week, the Jets embarrassed the Browns by recovering an onside kick and finishing an unbelievable comeback. They are going to be searching for redemption towards a struggling Pittsburgh offense. This rivalry sport will look slightly completely different than years previous and won’t function large quarterback play. Jadeveon Clowney is out, however Myles Garrett will play. T.J. Watt will nonetheless be on the sideline for Pittsburgh. Garrett will look so as to add to his three sacks this season towards a unit that has allowed 4 by means of two video games.
On offense, the Browns will look to run the ball, per regular. They’ve 76 speeding makes an attempt, the second most within the league. Final week, the Steelers’ protection minus Watt allowed 4 yards per carry to the Patriots. Nick Chubb is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and can discover lanes towards the Steelers’ protection, which permits 128.5 speeding yards per sport.
Choose: Browns -4.5, Lean u38.5
Texans vs. Bears
Justin Fields has solely thrown the ball 28 instances this season, which is by far the fewest within the league. Chicago needs to run the soccer, and they need to have the ability to at house towards Houston. Houston provides up 4.7 yards per rush try and 163 yards per sport. David Montgomery ran for 122 yards final week at Inexperienced Bay, so he’ll probably have an environment friendly day.
The Bears are one in all two groups worse than the Texans towards the run. They’ve allowed 189.5 yards per sport this season. It’s a weak point the Texans can exploit in the event that they select, however they’ve but to indicate a robust speeding assault. By two video games, they common 78.5 speeding yards per sport. The group with a greater speeding assault will probably win this sport since neither group has constant play from their quarterback.
Choose: Bears -2.5, Lean u40.5
Raiders vs. Titans
Each groups have had little success working the ball, rating within the backside third of the league in rush offense DVOA and yards per sport. This isn’t a lot of a problem for the Raiders as QB Derek Carr and the receivers are the offense’s point of interest. If the offensive line can preserve Carr on his ft and he limits errors, they will exploit a Titans’ protection that ranks twenty sixth in cross protection DVOA by means of two weeks.
For Tennessee, shifting the ball on the bottom is paramount. If they will’t transfer the ball towards Las Vegas, who restricted the Chargers and Cardinals within the run sport, they gained’t have the ability to open up the passing sport and can battle to place up factors on this Raiders protection. The Titans’ offense is sputtering, and if they will’t discover themselves quickly, this season might get out of hand.
Choose: Raiders -2, Lean u45.5
Chiefs vs. Colts
Indianapolis is lastly house after the offense struggled in two divisional highway video games. Sadly for them, their opponent is the red-hot Chiefs. The Chiefs have moved on from WR Tyreek Hill fairly rapidly, producing the third ranked offensive DVOA by means of two weeks, led by their passing assault. The Colts present a good matchup after permitting efficient passing days from QB Davis Mills and QB Trevor Lawrence, clocking the twenty ninth ranked cross protection DVOA. QB Patrick Mahomes and the corporate may have a area day.
In the meantime, QB Matt Ryan has not been the improve over Carson Wentz that the Colts wished. He’s been dreadful by means of two video games with one landing, 4 interceptions, and a putrid 31.2 QBR. The Kansas Metropolis protection has shut down each opponents’ working assaults, so the Colts are in for a protracted afternoon if Ryan is pressured to make performs with a banged-up receiving corps.
Choose: Lean Chiefs -6.5, u50.5
Payments vs. Dolphins
This matchup options two of the highest cross offenses within the league by virtually any metric. The Payments have finished effectively up to now defending the cross although the outcomes got here towards a sputtering Tennessee offense and a LA Ram offense that saved turning the ball over. Miami has the weapons to use this protection, much like how the Chiefs did within the Divisional spherical of the playoffs final yr. This sport might flip right into a observe meet rapidly.
In week 2, Miami was torched by Lamar Jackson by means of the air and on the bottom however was capable of come again when the Ravens’ shaky conventional run sport wasn’t capable of ice the sport away. Josh Allen ought to have the ability to have his method on this matchup, however the protection will want crucial stops, and the run sport might want to step up if the Payments wish to depart Miami with an enormous divisional win.
Choose: Lean Dolphins +6, Lean o52.5
Lions vs. Vikings
Jared Goff and the Lions bought their first win of the season towards the Commanders. They’ve 35 factors in consecutive video games and lead the league with 7.2 speeding yards per try. The Vikings enable 5.6 yards per rush try, so Detroit ought to have the ability to transfer the ball on the bottom. The Vikings also needs to have the ability to run the ball for the reason that Lions have allowed 5.1 yards per rush try and 5 speeding TDs this season. Dalvin Cook dinner will most likely rating his first TD of the season, particularly in the event that they discover the crimson zone. The Lions have allowed seven touchdowns on eight crimson zone makes an attempt. Kirk Cousins threw three interceptions final week, so the Vikings may be extra apt to run the ball this week towards a poor run protection. The Lions’ offense has been taking part in higher these days, they usually get the job finished on the highway.
Choose: Lean Lions +6, u52.5
Ravens vs. Patriots
The Baltimore Ravens absolutely shall be a preferred choose to bounce again following an astonishing fourth-quarter house collapse versus the Miami Dolphins. Be cautious of backing Baltimore, nonetheless.
New England Patriots HC Invoice Belichick owns a 15-4 report ATS as a house underdog. Regardless of most of those video games occurring throughout the Tom Brady period, the pattern has held up with a 3-2 report over the past two seasons.
If the Patriots can restrict Baltimore’s explosive performs, there’s a path for New England to win this sport. Nonetheless, the offensive disparity on this matchup is evident, and it’s tough to endorse the Patriots outright to cowl the brief unfold.
Choose: Lean Patriots +3, Lean u43.5
Bengals vs. Jets
The Bengals are off to one of the disappointing begins within the league. QB Joe Burrow and the offense have but to get going, however the ultimate scores don’t inform the entire story. In matchups with Pittsburgh and Dallas, they had been up towards the sixth and eighth ranked defenses per DVOA. The week 3 contest with the Jets gives a way more favorable matchup with the useless final ranked protection per DVOA.
The Jets offense has leaned closely on Joe Flacco, who has led the NFL in cross makes an attempt over the primary two weeks. He was able to getting them again into the sport towards Cleveland, however as long as this protection goes to maintain digging them into holes, Flacco’s heroics gained’t be sufficient.
The Bengals ought to bounce again right here on the highway and avenge final yr’s loss to the Jets with a cushty win.
Choose: Bengals -5, u45
Eagles vs. Commanders
The Eagles seemed dominant on Monday evening and seemed to proceed that manufacturing on the Commanders this week. They run right into a 1-1 Commanders group that appears to shake off the high-scoring loss on the Lions final week.
The Commanders have given up the fifth most speeding yards this yr at 157 yards per sport, whereas the Eagles have rushed for the second most yards at 190 yards per sport. With that stated, the Commanders have solely allowed two complete speeding yards to QBs this season, however Jalen Hurts is a speeding QB that doesn’t evaluate to Goff and Lawrence.
Search for the Eagles to run the ball early and infrequently. Like final week, we might see the Commanders get down early and switch to Wentz and the receiving corps to place up some late, second-half factors.
Choose: Lean Eagles -6.5, o47.5
Saints vs. Panthers
Two 55+ yard area objectives have been the distinction within the Panther’s 0-2 report, they usually look to bounce again as they host the Saints this week. Jameis Winston and the Saints, alternatively, are a curler coaster. A lackluster offensive efficiency in week 2 adopted a late, heroic win versus the Falcons in week 1—no telling what week 3 might carry.
That stated, Carolina has allowed the third least passing yards per sport however the fourth most speeding yards per sport. With some reviews saying Kamara might be taking part in in week 3, he may very well be the deciding issue within the ultimate judgment.
In the long run, this sport shall be determined by takeaways. The Saints have turned it over a league-high six instances up to now, whereas the Panthers aren’t too far behind with three. Whoever can maintain onto the ball will probably win this sport.
Choose: Panthers +3, Lean u40.5
Jaguars vs. Chargers
Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence was top-of-the-line gamers within the NFL final week. The second-year professional ripped aside the Colts’ cover-three protection, and the Jaguars offense has sneakily been among the many finest items within the NFL by means of two weeks.
TheChargers’s protection shall be far more tough for the younger offense to navigate, however it’s nonetheless price putting a wager on Jacksonville +7.
Moreover, anticipate this line to shift precipitously on the off-chance that Chargers QB Justin Herbert doesn’t play on this sport on account of damaged rib cartilage.
Exploiting alternatives for Closing Line Worth (CLV) is a worthwhile long-term betting technique. Even when Herbert had been to go well with u,p the Jags are nonetheless an underdog to again this Sunday.
Choose: Jaguars +7, Lean u47.5
Rams vs. Cardinals
The Cardinals welcome their divisional rival coming off an exhilarating win over the Raiders in week 2. Kyler Murray grew to become the savior for the Cardinals together with his video-game-like 2-point performs late within the 4th quarter. They’ll look to maintain the momentum going versus a gifted and deep Rams roster.
Since 2018, there has not been one common season sport between these two groups that has been nearer than 7 factors. The common successful margin within the eight video games performed from 2018 – 2021 was 16.25 factors, and I don’t see this pattern coming to a halt right here in week 3.
The Rams are the higher group. Search for a shootout and the Rams to tug away within the 4th quarter.
Choose: Rams -3.5, o48.5
Falcons vs. Seahawks
Two of the worst groups within the NFC will meet in Seattle in an afterthought of a matchup compared to the remainder of the week three slate.
The Seahawks upset victory over Denver in week one will probably be the spotlight of their season, and the Falcons will most likely be trying to find such a excessive all year long. Regardless of having such low stakes, this sport will probably be aggressive all through.
Anticipate Atlanta to search out success speeding the ball versus an exploitable Seattle front-seven, and be hopeful that the Falconscano get TE Kyle Pitts concerned on this matchup. Conversely, Atlanta will battle to match up with WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Anticipate factors on this sport, and for the Seahawks to cowl a brief unfold in Atlanta’s second consecutive sport on the west coast.
Choose: Seahawks -2, o42
Packers vs. Buccaneers
Two of the sport’s biggest QBsface off in a battle of NFC heavyweights. Such offensive firepower sometimes anticipated of Aaron Rodgers’ and Tom Brady’s groups have been absent up to now this season, as each quarterbacks have needed to take care of receiver rooms devoid of acquainted favorites.
Each groups will look to ascertain the run however anticipate Tampa to succeed extra within the floor sport than Inexperienced Bay. The Buccaneers’ protection has been historic by means of two weeks, and the Packers at present lack the personnel to maintain the unit on its heels.
Anticipate Tampa to cowl the unfold of their house opener and for the Packers to battle to search out any offensive rhythm.
Choose: Bucs -1, u41.5
49ers vs. Broncos
Russell Wilson shall be taking part in a well-known foe on Sunday evening. The very best protection by way of yardage shall be coming to Denver to tackle a struggling Broncos offense. They’ve moved the ball effectively however have failed to attain factors. On six crimson zone journeys, they’ve scored zero TDs. One other drawback is the variety of penalties they’ve acquired this season. They’ve been flagged 25 instances for 206 yards. Penalties are an issue towards the 49ers, who enable 226.5 yards per sport. They don’t seem to be a group that the Broncos can afford to lose yards to psychological errors.
On offense for the 49ers, Jimmy Garoppolo replaces the injured Trey Lance. He led them to the NFC Championship final season, so they’re lucky to have signed him earlier than the season. He may have a troublesome take a look at in his first begin.
Choose: Broncos +1.5, u44.5
Cowboys vs. Giants
To spherical out the week 3 slate, the Giants host the Cowboys in one of many small teams of video games with a house favourite this week. Each groups are coming off 3-point wins on account of prolonged, late area objectives and look to maintain up with the ever-so-daunting NFC East.
Dallas stymied Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense final week with their skill to get to the QB. Search for that to proceed because the struggling Giants OL has given upeight8 sacks by means of 2 weeks right here in 2022. Whereas New York has rushed for 171 yards per sport to begin the season, good for a top-five mark by means of 2 weeks, Dallas has confirmed to restrict gifted RBs like Mixon when they’re known as upon to step up.
With that stated, it’s exhausting to wager on Cooper Rush. Even 39 is just too many factors.
Choose: Lean Giants -1, u39
What’s Betting Towards the Unfold?
Betting “towards the unfold” refers to selecting the successful group primarily based on a numeric handicap positioned on the group that oddsmakers imagine is superior, relatively than selecting the outright winner. For instance, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the unfold at Rams -3.5, you would want Los Angeles to win by 4 or extra factors to money your Rams wager.
What’s an Over/Below Wager?
Over/Below is a wager primarily based on what number of factors you assume shall be scored in a particular sport. Oddsmakers set the entire, and bettors resolve whether or not the ultimate rating shall be greater or decrease than that. If an Over/Below is about at 44.5 factors, and also you wager Over, you have to the mixed rating of each groups to be 45 factors or greater to win your wager.
What’s a Moneyline Wager?
A moneyline wager includes selecting which group you imagine will win a particular matchup. The moneyline favourite carries a minus designation, like -130, and you want to wager $130 to earn a $100 revenue. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus tag, like +110. You win $110 in revenue on a $100 wager.
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