NFL Week 3 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Greatest Bets (9/25)

NFL Preseason Week 2

Listed here are just a few of our high picks for Week 3 of the NFL season. All odds are from the next sportsbooks.

Click on on the sportsbook hyperlinks above to take a look at their promotional gives. Should you’re not profiting from these offers, you’re mainly admitting to your self that you just hate cash.

Additionally try our BettingPros matchups web page, the place you may see the proportion distributions of unfold, over/beneath and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

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Freedman’s Week 3 Projections Towards the Unfold

Listed here are my private unfold projections for every Week 3 recreation, ordered in keeping with when every recreation kicks off. The consensus strains are pulled from our BettingPros odds web page on Wednesday and are introduced — together with my projected strains and edges — from the attitude of the house group.

Word: I replace my private projections in addition to our premium BettingPros unfold projections all through the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Sept. 21, 1 pm ET. 

Dwelling Staff
Street Staff
Consensus Line
Freedman Line
Projected Edge

IND
KC
6.5
5.25
-1.25

NE
BAL
3
-0.5
-3.5

MIA
BUF
5.5
5
-0.5

CHI
HOU
-3
-3.75
-0.75

CAR
NO
3
2.25
-0.75

MIN
DET
-6
-5
1

TEN
LV
2
-0.5
-2.5

NYJ
CIN
4.5
5.75
1.25

WAS
PHI
6.5
3.25
-3.25

LAC
JAX
-7
-9.5
-2.5

ARI
LAR
4
3.5
-0.5

SEA
ATL
-2
-2.75
-0.75

TB
GB
-2
-1.25
0.75

DEN
SF
1.5
-0.5
-2

NYG
DAL
-2.5
-1
1.5

 

Freedman’s Week 3 ATS Guess Breakdowns

Listed here are stats and notes for the video games with unfold bets I like proper now.

Prop Guess Analyzer: View high rated props and historic prop efficiency by participant >>

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Take a look at our Ravens at Patriots matchup web page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: Gillette Stadium
TV: FOX

Ravens at Patriots: Consensus Traces

Unfold: Ravens -3
Over/Beneath: 43.5
Moneyline: Ravens -155, Patriots +135

Ravens at Patriots: Betting Percentages

Knowledge from Motion Community and as of Sept. 21.

Unfold: Patriots – 11% bets, 19% cash
Over/Beneath: Beneath – 31% bets, 48% cash
Moneyline: Patriots – 78% bets, 97% cash

Ravens at Patriots: Key Accidents

Baltimore Ravens: Week 3 Harm Report

Participant
Place
Harm
Wed

Calais Campbell
DE
NIR-Relaxation
DNP

Devin Duvernay
WR
Concussion
DNP

Justin Houston
OLB
NIR-Relaxation
DNP

Marlon Humphrey
CB
Groin
DNP

Marcus Peters
CB
NIR-Relaxation
DNP

J.Okay. Dobbins
RB
Knee
FP

Travis Jones
DT
Knee
FP

Lamar Jackson
QB
Proper Elbow
LP

Isaiah Possible
TE
Groin
LP

James Proche
WR
Groin
LP

Ronnie Stanley
OT
Ankle
LP

Brandon Stephens
CB
Quad
LP

Damarion Williams
CB
Ankle
LP

 

Baltimore Ravens: IR, PUP & Out

EDGE Steven Means (Achilles, IR): OUT
CB Kyle Fuller (knee, IR): OUT
OT Ja’Wuan James (Achilles, IR): OUT
LB Vince Biegel (Achilles, IR): OUT
EDGE David Ojabo (Achilles, PUP): OUT
EDGE Tyus Bowser (Achilles, PUP): OUT
RB Gus Edwards (knee, PUP): OUT

Ravens Harm Information

New England Patriots: Week 3 Harm Report

Participant
Place
Harm
Wed

Kyle Dugger
S
Knee
DNP

Jakobi Meyers
WR
Knee
DNP

Joshuah Bledsoe
SAF
Groin
LP

Cody Davis
DB
Calf
LP

Davon Godchaux
NT
Again
LP

Raekwon McMillan
MLB
Thumb
LP

DaMarcus Mitchell
DE
Knee
LP

Adrian Phillips
DB
Ribs
LP

 

New England Patriots: IR, PUP & Out

RB Ty Montgomery (ankle, IR): OUT
WR Tyquan Thornton (shoulder, IR): OUT
EDGE Ronnie Perkins (undisclosed, IR): OUT
CB Joejuan Williams (shoulder, IR): OUT

Patriots Harm Information

Ravens at Patriots: Notable Developments

Knowledge from Motion Community and goes again to 2003. Abbreviations: Towards the unfold (ATS), return on funding (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Baltimore Ravens Developments

HC John Harbaugh: 59-48-6 ATS (8.4% ROI) on highway
QB Lamar Jackson: 16-9 ATS (26.5% ROI) on highway

New England Patriots Developments

HC Invoice Belichick: 29-24-1 ATS (7.9% ROI) with out QB Tom Brady
HC Invoice Belichick: 30-16-2 ATS (26.8% ROI) as underdog
HC Invoice Belichick: 25-23 ML (33.5% ROI) as underdog
HC Invoice Belichick: 5-1-1 ATS (54.1% ROI) vs. Ravens HC John Harbaugh
HC Invoice Belichick: 5-2 ML (49.3% ROI) vs. Ravens HC John Harbaugh

Ravens at Patriots: Staff Statistics

Superior information from RBs Don’t Matter and Soccer Outsiders. Fundamental stats from Professional Soccer Reference. Common season solely. Abbreviations: Anticipated Factors Added (EPA), Success Fee (SR), Protection-Adjusted Worth Over Common (DVOA).

Ravens Offense vs. Patriots Protection: 2022

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.17
6
-0.015
11
5

Complete SR
43.8%
17
45.7%
21
4

Complete DVOA
31.9%
1
-5.3%
11
10

 

Ravens Offense vs. Patriots Protection: 2021

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.009
19
-0.063
4
-15

Complete SR
46.4%
10
42.5%
7
-3

Complete DVOA
1.7%
17
-12.8%
4
-13

 

Patriots Offense vs. Ravens Protection: 2022

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
-0.033
17
0.103
26
9

Complete SR
47.5%
9
45.2%
17
8

Complete DVOA
7.4%
11
9.9%
21
10

 

Patriots Offense vs. Ravens Protection: 2021

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.07
10
0.078
27
17

Complete SR
48.6%
4
43.2%
11
7

Complete DVOA
10.5%
9
9.3%
28
19

 

Ravens at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics

Knowledge from RBs Don’t Matter, Professional Soccer Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Proportion Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Try (AY/A), Adjusted Complete Quarterback Ranking (QBR), Quarterback Elo Worth (QB Elo). 2022 information: Min. 32 performs for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 go makes an attempt per scheduled recreation for AY/A. Min. 20 motion performs per recreation for QBR. 2021 information: Min. 200 performs for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 go makes an attempt per scheduled recreation for AY/A. Min. 20 motion performs per recreation for QBR.

2022: Lamar Jackson

EPA + CPOE: 0.180 (No. 5)
AY/A: 10.3 (No. 1)
QBR: 76.5 (No. 4)
ATS Worth vs. Common: 2.3 (No. 6)

2021: Lamar Jackson

EPA + CPOE: 0.084 (No. 20)
AY/A: 6.9 (No. 18)
QBR: 56.8 (No. 17)
ATS Worth vs. Common: 0.4 (No. 14)

Profession: Lamar Jackson

AY/A: 7.8
QB Elo per Sport: 82.1

2022: Mac Jones 

EPA + CPOE: 0.058 (No. 14)
AY/A: 6.4 (No. 19)
QBR: 32.0 (No. 26)
ATS Worth vs. Common: -0.1 (No. 17)

2021: Mac Jones

EPA + CPOE: 0.114 (No. 12)
AY/A: 7.0 (No. 16)
QBR: 56.9 (No. 16)
ATS Worth vs. Common: -0.7 (No. 21)

Profession: Mac Jones

AY/A: 6.9
QB Elo per Sport: -14.6

Key Matchup: Patriots Run Protection vs. Ravens Run Offense

Though this 12 months the Ravens are “solely” No. 11 with a 43.0% rush charge, they’re a operating group at their core. That’s what occurs when you may have QB Lamar Jackson (a floor assault cheat code) and OC Greg Roman (a run recreation coordinator by commerce).

In buying and selling away No. 1 WR Marquise Brown this offseason and changing him within the draft with two tight ends (as a substitute of large receivers), the Ravens signaled that they wish to return to their 2019 run-heavy methods.

However they may wrestle to run towards the Patriots. No. 1 RB J.Okay. Dobbins (knee) is but to return from final 12 months’s season-ending harm. No. 2 RB Gus Edwards (knee, PUP) is out. Backup RBs Kenyon Drake (17-39-0 dashing) and Mike Davis (7-15-0) have been pedestrian harm fill-ins.

Moreover, beginning LT Ronnie Stanley (ankle) is but to play this 12 months after showing in only one recreation final 12 months and 6 video games the 12 months earlier than that. And backup LT Ja’Wuan James (Achilles, IR) is out.

With all these accidents, the Ravens offense has been predictably horrible on the bottom this 12 months, and the Patriots protection has been common at worst.

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

Rush EPA
-0.264
29
-0.046
17
-12

Rush SR
27.9%
31
48.8%
27
-4

Rush DVOA
-43.5%
32
-6.3%
17
-15

Adj. Line Yards
3.04
31
3.73
8
-23

Yards per Play
7
1
4.7
6
5

Factors per Sport
31
4
17
8
4

 

Consequently, the Patriots protection has been a top-five unit in yards per play and factors recreation by way of two video games — similar to the Ravens offense.

If the Patriots preserve the Ravens in test on the bottom, that would drive them right into a heavy reliance on the passing recreation, and whereas the Ravens have had success within the air this 12 months (No. 1 in go DVOA, 103.8%) it’s by no means a constructive growth to turn into one dimensional towards a Belichick protection.

Plus, the Ravens have had fortuitous matchups to open the 12 months, going through the bottom-two defenses in go DVOA in Weeks 1-2.

Jets (Week 1): 55.4% (No. 32)
Dolphins (Week 2): 48.2% (No. 31)

I’m skeptical that the Ravens go offense is nearly as good because it has not too long ago appeared — and if their run offense struggles in Week 3 then they may have an underwhelming efficiency total.

Within the preseason market, this quantity was a choose’em. Not that a lot has modified between then and now.

Greatest Line: Patriots +3 (+100, Caesars)
First Advisable: Patriot +3 (-108)
Private Projection: Patriots -0.5
Restrict: Patriots +2

Prop Guess Analyzer: View high rated props and historic prop efficiency by participant >>

Las Vegas Raiders at Tennessee Titans

Take a look at our Raiders at Titans matchup web page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: Nissan Stadium
TV: FOX

Raiders at Titans: Consensus Traces

Unfold: Raiders -2
Over/Beneath: 45.5
Moneyline: Raiders -129, Titans +110

Raiders at Titans: Betting Percentages

Knowledge from Motion Community and as of Sept. 21.

Unfold: Raiders – 41% bets, 44% cash
Over/Beneath: Beneath – 45% bets, 91% cash
Moneyline: Raiders – 36% bets, 57% cash

Raiders at Titans: Key Accidents

Las Vegas Raiders: Week 3 Harm Report

Participant
Place
Harm
Wed

Andre James
C
Concussion
DNP

Chandler Jones
DE
NIR-rest
DNP

Tre’von Moehrig
FS
Hip
DNP

Bilal Nichols
DT
Shoulder
DNP

Denzel Perryman
MLB
Ankle
DNP

Hunter Renfrow
WR
Concussion
DNP

Brandon Bolden
RB
Hamstring
LP

Jermaine Eluemunor
OT
Hip
LP

Neil Farrell
DE
Shoulder
LP

 

Las Vegas Raiders: IR, PUP & Out

CB Anthony Averett (thumb, IR): OUT
RT Brandon Parker (triceps, IR): OUT
EDGE Jordan Jenkins (knee, IR): OUT
LB Micah Kiser (leg, IR): OUT

Raiders Harm Information

Tennessee Titans: Week 3 Harm Report

Participant
Place
Harm
Wed

Ugo Amadi
SAF
Ankle
DNP

Bud Dupree
OLB
Hip
DNP

Jamarco Jones
OT
Triceps
DNP

Taylor Lewan
OT
Knee
DNP

Ola Adeniyi
OLB
Neck
LP

Denico Autry
DT
Not Harm Associated
LP

Treylon Burks
WR
Ankle
LP

Kristian Fulton
CB
Hamstring
LP

Dontrell Hilliard
RB
Hamstring
LP

Joe Jones
LB
Hamstring
LP

Kyle Philips
WR
Shoulder
LP

 

Tennessee Titans: IR, PUP & Out

EDGE Harold Landry (knee, IR): OUT
CB Elijah Molden (groin, IR): OUT
LB Monty Rice (ankle, IR): OUT
RB Trenton Cannon (knee, IR): OUT
LT Taylor Lewan (knee): DNP on Wed., feared OUT for 12 months

Titans Harm Information

Raiders at Titans: Notable Developments

Knowledge from Motion Community and goes again to 2003. Abbreviations: Towards the unfold (ATS), return on funding (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Las Vegas Raiders Developments

QB Derek Carr: 13-24-1 ATS (25.2% ROI for faders) as favourite
QB Derek Carr: 1-7-1 ATS (60.9% ROI for faders) as favourite vs. playoff group

Tennessee Titans Developments

HC Mike Vrabel: 18-12 ATS (15.3% ROI) as underdog
HC Mike Vrabel: 8-4 ATS (27.7% ROI) as dwelling underdog
HC Mike Vrabel: 5-1-1 ATS (54.2% ROI) off back-to-back losses

Raiders at Titans: Staff Statistics

Superior information from RBs Don’t Matter and Soccer Outsiders. Fundamental stats from Professional Soccer Reference. Common season solely. Abbreviations: Anticipated Factors Added (EPA), Success Fee (SR), Protection-Adjusted Worth Over Common (DVOA).

Raiders Offense vs. Titans Protection: 2022

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
-0.083
22
0.141
27
5

Complete SR
43.9%
16
45.6%
19
3

Complete DVOA
-16.0%
24
17.9%
29
5

 

Raiders Offense vs. Titans Protection: 2021

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
-0.001
20
-0.018
10
-10

Complete SR
45.2%
13
42.6%
8
-5

Complete DVOA
-3.4%
19
-2.3%
12
-7

 

Titans Offense vs. Raiders Protection: 2022

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
-0.153
31
0.065
23
-8

Complete SR
42.5%
19
48.0%
30
11

Complete DVOA
-19.2%
29
0.8%
15
-14

 

Titans Offense vs. Raiders Protection: 2021

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.025
15
0.061
25
10

Complete SR
44.7%
15
44.5%
15
0

Complete DVOA
-4.2%
20
0.6%
17
-3

 

Ravens at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics

Knowledge from RBs Don’t Matter, Professional Soccer Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Proportion Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Try (AY/A), Adjusted Complete Quarterback Ranking (QBR), Quarterback Elo Worth (QB Elo). 2022 information: Min. 32 performs for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 go makes an attempt per scheduled recreation for AY/A. Min. 20 motion performs per recreation for QBR. 2021 information: Min. 200 performs for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 go makes an attempt per scheduled recreation for AY/A. Min. 20 motion performs per recreation for QBR.

2022: Derek Carr

EPA + CPOE: 0.038 (No. 20)
AY/A: 6.5 (No. 17)
QBR: 40.6 (No. 21)
ATS Worth vs. Common: -0.3 (No. 19)

2021: Derek Carr

EPA + CPOE: 0.105 (No. 16)
AY/A: 7.4 (No. 12)
QBR: 58.4 (No. 14)
ATS Worth vs. Common: 0.0 (No. 16)

Profession: Derek Carr

AY/A: 7.1
QB Elo per Sport: 14.0

2022: Ryan Tannehill 

EPA + CPOE: 0.042 (No. 18)
AY/A: 6.3 (No. 20)
QBR: 48.3 (No. 17)
ATS Worth vs. Common: -0.6 (No. 22)

2021: Ryan Tannehill

EPA + CPOE: 0.113 (No. 13)
AY/A: 6.6 (No. 20)
QBR: 61.8 (No. 8)
ATS Worth vs. Common: 0.1 (No. 15)

Profession: Ryan Tannehill

AY/A: 7.1
QB Elo per Sport: -4.6

Key Matchup: Titans Go Rush vs. Raiders Go Blocking

Even with out EDGE Harold Landry (knee, IR), the Titans line of defense has a marked benefit over the Raiders offensive line in our FantasyPros unit energy rankings.

Rank
Defensive Line
Opp OL
OL Rank
Edge

13
TEN
LV
30
17

 

Particularly, the Titans this 12 months have exceled at dashing the quarterback, and the Raiders have struggled most in go safety.

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

Adj. Sack Fee
8.6%
25
9.5%
6
-19

 

If C Andre James (concussion) misses one other recreation, I feel the suitable aspect of the offensive line will probably be particularly weak. In his absence final week, rookie RG Dylan Parham shifted to heart, and undrafted fourth-year backup Lester Cotton acquired his first NFL begin filling in at proper guard. Second-Staff All-Professional DT Jeffery Simmons (8.5 sacks final 12 months) might wreak havoc towards these two.

And on the top of the road is RT Jermaine Eluemunor, a journeyman backup who has performed most of his snaps at guard. He’ll seemingly be outmatched by EDGEs Denico Autry and Bud Dupree (hip, assuming Dupree performs).

This line was Titans -1.75 within the preseason market. Yeah, the Titans are 0-2 — however so are the Raiders.

Greatest Line: Titans +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Advisable: Titans +2.5 (-110)
Private Projection: Titans -0.5
Restrict: Titans +2

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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Take a look at our Eagles at Commanders matchup web page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: FedExField
TV: FOX

Eagles at Commanders: Consensus Traces

Unfold: Eagles -6.5
Over/Beneath: 47.5
Moneyline: Eagles -278, Commanders +240

Eagles at Commanders: Betting Percentages

Knowledge from Motion Community and as of Sept. 21.

Unfold: Eagles – 55% bets, 58% cash
Over/Beneath: Beneath – 51% bets, 81% cash
Moneyline: Eagles – 67% bets, 67% cash

Eagles at Commanders: Key Accidents

Philadelphia Eagles: Week 3 Harm Report

Participant
Place
Harm
Wed

Quez Watkins
WR
Sickness
DNP

Avonte Maddox
CB
Again
LP

Haason Reddick
OLB
Knee
LP

 

Philadelphia Eagles: IR, PUP & Out

EDGE Derek Barnett (knee, IR): OUT
OT Andre Dillard (arm, IR): OUT
OL Brett Toth (knee, PUP): OUT
TE Tyree Jackson (knee, PUP): OUT

Eagles Harm Information

Washington Commanders: Week 3 Harm Report

Participant
Place
Harm
Wed

Shaka Toney
DE
Sickness
DNP

Casey Toohill
DE
Concussion
DNP

Daniel Smart
DT
Ankle
DNP

Saahdiq Charles
OT
Shoulder
LP

Cole Holcomb
LB
Quad
LP

Trai Turner
G
Quad
LP

 

Washington Commanders: IR, PUP & Out

EDGE Chase Younger (knee, PUP): OUT
C Chase Roullier (knee, IR): OUT
C Tyler Larsen (Achilles, PUP): OUT
RB Brian Robinson (leg, PUP): OUT
DT Phidarian Mathis (knee, IR): OUT

Commanders Harm Information

Eagles at Commanders: Notable Developments

Knowledge from Motion Community and goes again to 2003. Abbreviations: Towards the unfold (ATS), return on funding (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Philadelphia Eagles Developments

HC Nick Sirianni: 1-4-1 ATS (44.4% ROI) in division

Washington Commanders Developments

Divisional Underdogs: 205-146-11 ATS (13.8% ROI) in Weeks 1-4
Divisional Underdogs: 140-100-6 ATS (13.2% ROI) vs. group with two-game win streak
Divisional Underdogs: 24-10-2 ATS (36.1% ROI) vs. group with two-game win streak in Weeks 1-4

Eagles at Commanders: Staff Statistics

Superior information from RBs Don’t Matter and Soccer Outsiders. Fundamental stats from Professional Soccer Reference. Common season solely. Abbreviations: Anticipated Factors Added (EPA), Success Fee (SR), Protection-Adjusted Worth Over Common (DVOA).

Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Protection: 2022

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.212
4
0.068
24
20

Complete SR
50.0%
4
43.0%
12
8

Complete DVOA
27.3%
5
16.2%
28
23

 

Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Protection: 2021

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.061
12
0.08
28
16

Complete SR
46.4%
10
45.1%
18
8

Complete DVOA
8.1%
11
5.8%
27
16

 

Commanders Offense vs. Eagles Protection: 2022

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.069
10
-0.028
9
-1

Complete SR
41.7%
22
45.7%
21
-1

Complete DVOA
-0.1%
15
-9.6%
9
-6

 

Commanders Offense vs. Eagles Protection: 2021

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
-0.036
21
0.009
17
-4

Complete SR
44.8%
14
46.2%
22
8

Complete DVOA
-5.3%
21
4.7%
25
4

 

Eagles at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics

Knowledge from RBs Don’t Matter, Professional Soccer Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Proportion Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Try (AY/A), Adjusted Complete Quarterback Ranking (QBR), Quarterback Elo Worth (QB Elo). 2022 information: Min. 32 performs for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 go makes an attempt per scheduled recreation for AY/A. Min. 20 motion performs per recreation for QBR. 2021 information: Min. 200 performs for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 go makes an attempt per scheduled recreation for AY/A. Min. 20 motion performs per recreation for QBR.

2022: Jalen Hurts

EPA + CPOE: 0.154 (No. 7)
AY/A: 8.7 (No. 5)
QBR: 70.8 (No. 7)
ATS Worth vs. Common: 1.7 (No. 7)

2021: Jalen Hurts

EPA + CPOE: 0.088 (No. 18)
AY/A: 7.1 (No. 15)
QBR: 54.6 (No. 19)
ATS Worth vs. Common: 0.5 (No. 12)

Profession: Jalen Hurts

AY/A: 7.2
QB Elo per Sport: 48.0

2022: Carson Wentz

EPA + CPOE: 0.112 (No. 11)
AY/A: 7.5 (No. 9)
QBR: 51.7 (No. 14)
ATS Worth vs. Common: -0.2 (No. 18)

2021: Carson Wentz

EPA + CPOE: 0.070 (No. 22)
AY/A: 7.3 (No. 13)
QBR: 60.6 (No. 9)
ATS Worth vs. Common: -1.6 (No. 35)

Profession: Carson Wentz

AY/A: 6.9
QB Elo per Sport: -2.2

Key Matchup: Commanders Inside Offensive Line vs. Eagles DTs Fletcher Cox & Javon Hargrave

If QB Carson Wentz is to exorcise his demons on this #RevengeGame towards his former group, the inside of his offensive line might want to play properly.

C Chase Roullier (knee, IR) is out, as is backup C Tyler Larsen (Achilles, PUP). And lacking from final 12 months’s beginning unit are LG Ereck Flowers (launched) and RG Brandon Scherff (free company). So in Week 3 the Commanders can have three new year-over-year starters on the inside of their line, and this precise trio has by no means performed collectively as a unit.

Given the state of affairs, this seems to be like a wonderful setup for DTs Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave.

Even so, I feel the Commanders will carry out adequately on their inside offensive line. RG Wes Schweitzer will shift to heart, and he has made 19 begins within the inside for the Commanders since 2020: He is aware of the system. Changing Schweitzer at proper guard will probably be backup Trai Turner — a Professional-Bowler for HC Ron Rivera and OC Scott Turner from their time along with the Panthers. And though LG Andrew Norwell is new to the group, he’s one other Panthers transplant and was an All-Professional in 2017. He and Turner manned the inside of the Panthers offensive line collectively for 4 years (2014-17).

Even with harm points and new starters, this isn’t a patchworked inside. It has respectable continuity — and Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell may very well be important drivers of success for the Commanders.

With out EDGE Derek Barnett (knee, IR), the Eagles protection is simply No. 27 in adjusted sack charge (3.7%) by way of two video games. If Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell are competent, they could be capable of preserve Wentz clear within the pocket.

And regardless of the offseason additions of DT Jordan Davis (draft), EDGE Haason Reddick (free company) and LBs Kyzir White (free company) and Nakobe Dean (draft), the Eagles are nonetheless bottom-five in run protection in each key metric.

Rush EPA: 0.204 (No. 32)
Rush SR: 50.0% (No. 28)
Rush DVOA: 23.1% (No. 29)
Adj. Line Yards: 5.56 (No. 29)

If Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell are in a position to maintain their very own towards Cox and Hargrave in run blocking, the Commanders might use the dashing recreation to increase drives, grind down the clock, preserve the explosive Eagles offense on the sideline — and preserve the sport shut.

This line was -1 within the preseason and -3 within the lookahead market final Thursday. The -6.5 we see out there now could be an overreaction to the Eagles’ 2-0 begin and their 24-7 Week 2 win towards the Vikings on Monday Night time Soccer.

Greatest Line: Commanders +6.5 (-105, BetMGM)
First Advisable: Commanders +6.5 (-105)
Private Projection: Commanders +3.25
Restrict: Commanders +5.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers

Take a look at our Jaguars at Chargers matchup web page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
Location: SoFi Stadium
TV: CBS

Jaguars at Chargers: Consensus Traces

Unfold: Chargers -7
Over/Beneath: 47.5
Moneyline: Chargers -315, Jaguars +265

Jaguars at Chargers: Betting Percentages

Knowledge from Motion Community and as of Sept. 21.

Unfold: Jaguars – 48% bets, 94% cash
Over/Beneath: Beneath – 46% bets, 87% cash
Moneyline: Jaguars – 6% bets, 36% cash

Jaguars at Chargers: Key Accidents

Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 3 Harm Report

No accidents.

Jacksonville Jaguars: IR, PUP & Out

EDGE Jordan Smith (knee, IR): OUT

Jaguars Harm Information

Los Angeles Chargers: Week 3 Harm Report

Participant
Place
Harm
Wed

J.C. Jackson
DB
Ankle
DNP

Corey Linsley
C
Knee
DNP

Keenan Allen
WR
Hamstring
LP

Justin Herbert
QB
Ribs
LP

Donald Parham
TE
Hamstring
LP

Trey Pipkins
OT
Foot
LP

 

Los Angeles Chargers: IR, PUP & Out

DT Forrest Merrill (undisclosed, IR): OUT

Chargers Harm Information

Jaguars at Chargers: Notable Developments

Knowledge from Motion Community and goes again to 2003. Abbreviations: Towards the unfold (ATS), return on funding (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Jacksonville Jaguars Developments

HC Doug Pederson: 15-25 ATS (21.4% ROI for faders) on highway
East Coast Groups: 116-94-8 ATS (6.7% ROI) on West Coast for afternoon video games

Los Angeles Chargers Developments

Dwelling Favorites: 24-15-1 ATS (19.6% ROI) after a Thursday Night time Soccer highway loss

Jaguars at Chargers: Staff Statistics

Superior information from RBs Don’t Matter and Soccer Outsiders. Fundamental stats from Professional Soccer Reference. Common season solely. Abbreviations: Anticipated Factors Added (EPA), Success Fee (SR), Protection-Adjusted Worth Over Common (DVOA).

Jaguars Offense vs. Chargers Protection: 2022

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.09
9
-0.015
11
2

Complete SR
46.0%
12
44.1%
14
2

Complete DVOA
18.6%
9
-14.3%
7
-2

 

Jaguars Offense vs. Chargers Protection: 2021

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
-0.079
28
0.044
24
-4

Complete SR
44.0%
19
46.8%
27
8

Complete DVOA
-15.1%
27
4.8%
26
-1

 

Chargers Offense vs. Jaguars Protection: 2022

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.045
11
-0.11
4
-7

Complete SR
47.8%
6
36.9%
2
-4

Complete DVOA
10.3%
10
-30.6%
3
-7

 

Chargers Offense vs. Jaguars Protection: 2021

Metric
Offense
Rank
Protection
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.088
5
0.111
31
26

Complete SR
47.4%
5
47.0%
28
23

Complete DVOA
16.0%
4
11.7%
31
27

 

Jaguars at Chargers: Quarterback Statistics

Knowledge from RBs Don’t Matter, Professional Soccer Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Proportion Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Try (AY/A), Adjusted Complete Quarterback Ranking (QBR), Quarterback Elo Worth (QB Elo). 2022 information: Min. 32 performs for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 go makes an attempt per scheduled recreation for AY/A. Min. 20 motion performs per recreation for QBR. 2021 information: Min. 200 performs for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 go makes an attempt per scheduled recreation for AY/A. Min. 20 motion performs per recreation for QBR.

2022: Trevor Lawrence

EPA + CPOE: 0.185 (No. 4)
AY/A: 7.3 (No. 10)
QBR: 73.1 (No. 5)
ATS Worth vs. Common: -0.8 (No. 24)

2021: Trevor Lawrence

EPA + CPOE: 0.009 (No. 35)
AY/A: 5.2 (No. 32)
QBR: 39.1 (No. 28)
ATS Worth vs. Common: -2.5 (No. 44)

Profession: Trevor Lawrence

AY/A: 5.4
QB Elo per Sport: -58.4

2022: Justin Herbert

EPA + CPOE: 0.206 (No. 5)
AY/A: 8.4 (No. 6)
QBR: 70.6 (No. 8)
ATS Worth vs. Common: 3.3 (No. 3)

2021: Justin Herbert

EPA + CPOE: 0.123 (No. 9)
AY/A: 7.6 (No. 10)
QBR: 70.9 (No. 3)
ATS Worth vs. Common: 3.3 (No. 5)

Profession: Justin Herbert

AY/A: 7.6
QB Elo per Sport: 79.2

Key Matchup: EDGEs Joey Bosa & Khalil Mack vs. LT Cam Robinson & RT Jawaan Taylor 

This offseason, the Jaguars took steps to fortify the inside of their offensive line by drafting C Luke Fortner and signing RG Brandon Scherff. With these strikes, QB Trevor Lawrence has seen important year-over-year enchancment.

However they nonetheless have LT Cam Robinson and RT Jawaan Taylor as their offensive line bookends, they usually’re common. As loads of groups know, having common tackles is best than having nothing in any respect — however common play gained’t be adequate towards EDGEs Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. With these two main the cost (#NailedIt), the Chargers protection is No. 7 with a 9.2% adjusted sack charge.

In our FantasyPros unit energy rankings, the Chargers line of defense has an enormous edge over the Jaguars offensive line, and that’s primarily due to Bosa and Mack, who have already got six sacks this 12 months.

Rank
Defensive Line
Opp OL
OL Rank
Edge

3
LAC
JAC
24
21

 

I count on to see Bosa and Mack mix for a number of sacks towards the Jaguars.

Provided that he acquired in a restricted observe on Wednesday and has three further days (from Thursday Night time Soccer) to get better, I count on to Chargers QB Justin Herbert to play in Week 3.

#Chargers Justin Herbert – We’d estimate ~70% probability he performs, regardless of main ache. Numbing injection will most likely assist him quite a bit. Wouldn’t count on to see large impression on his throwing, however don’t be shocked if he’s fast to throw it away to keep away from massive hits#FantasyFootball #NFL

— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) September 21, 2022

And if he performs I feel this line must be considerably larger. Within the preseason, it was -10. Within the lookahead market — earlier than the Chargers performed properly towards the Chiefs on TNF — it was -9.

The Jaguars’ 24-0 Week 2 over the Colts was spectacular — however not sufficient to justify this transfer all the way down to -7.

Greatest Line: Chargers -7 (-105, BetMGM)
First Advisable: Chargers -9 (-110)
Private Projection: Chargers -9.5
Restrict: Chargers -7.5

Week 2 Document

Picks in BettingPros tracker: 7-3-1 (+3.64 models)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 4-1

Yr-to-Date Document

Picks in BettingPros tracker: 11-6-1 (+5.39 models)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 7-3

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Author: Carl Morris